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Das Zen Horizon Framework, das Geschäftsqualität, Burggräben und inneren Wert von KI, Technologie und globalen Aktien seziert — mit einer klaren Einschätzung der Sicherheitsmarge.

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41/100 70Buffett Hold Dahua: 10% H1 Growth and a 43% Gross Margin Are Real, but CNY 15.72 Sits Above Conservative Value While FCC Component Rules and a CNY 8.568bn Inventory Build Leave No Margin of Safety Zhejiang Dahua Technology is the world's No. 2 video-surveillance supplier, a video-centric smart-IoT vendor earning roughly half of its revenue overseas; smart-IoT products and solutions brought in CNY 26.409bn, 80.65% of 2025 revenue, while software was only about 5.6% of sales. H1 2026 revenue rose 10.03% to CNY 16.704bn with gross margin at 43.06% and adjusted profit up 8.26%, yet operating cash flow swung to negative CNY 1.107bn as inventory rose 40.68% to CNY 8.568bn, and FCC 26-50 extends U.S. restrictions to logic-bearing components from October 13, 2026. Rating Hold: at CNY 15.72, around 17.9 times trailing adjusted earnings and above the CNY 14.2 conservative value, the price lacks a margin of safety; the ideal buy zone is CNY 10.6–11.3. Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., Ltd.002236 · ShenzhenPublic Safety Technology17. September 2026 44/100 69Buffett Hold MSA Safety: Adjusted Operating Margin Reached 24.1% on 3.2% Organic Growth, 744 Million USD Went Into Two Detection Acquisitions in Fourteen Months, and 179.82 USD Sits 50% Above the 120 USD Ideal Buy Ceiling MSA Safety sells certified gas-detection systems, fire-service equipment such as the G1 SCBA and Globe turnout gear, and industrial protective gear, with Detection now 40% of Q2 2026 sales and the Americas earning a 32.0% adjusted operating margin against 15.5% internationally. Q2 sales rose 6.2% to 503.3 million USD on only 3.2% organic growth, adjusted operating margin reached 24.1% with help from about 4 million USD of tariff refunds that will not recur, and the 555 million USD Autronica purchase at 17.3 times EBITDA lifts pro-forma net leverage to about 1.8 times while Globe faces 21,372 PFAS claims. Rating Hold: at 179.82 USD the shares trade at about 20.6 times trailing adjusted EPS, inside the 175–220 USD acceptable hold zone but roughly 50% above the 115–120 USD ideal buy zone, so the advice is to wait for 120 USD or below. MSA Safety IncorporatedMSA · USAPublic Safety Technology17. September 2026 48/100 78Buffett Hold CFMOTO: Four-Wheeler Revenue Up 51% but H1 Profit Up Only 6%, and CNY 296.88 at 24-25x Normalized Earnings Leaves No Margin of Safety Zhejiang CFMOTO Power is a globalizing Chinese powersports manufacturer whose profit engine is high-margin ATV and side-by-side exports: FY2025 ATV/SSV revenue of CNY 9.608bn earned a 32.14% gross margin, petrol motorcycles added CNY 6.471bn at 24.51%, and the ZEEHO electric two-wheeler line sold 551,237 units at a negative 0.03% gross margin. H1 2026 revenue grew 35.82% to CNY 13.386bn with four-wheeler revenue up 51.05%, yet attributable profit rose only 6.26% to CNY 1.065bn as gross margin slipped to 27.26%, a CNY 256m FX loss and CNY 643m of U.S. tariffs weighed, and Polaris's Section 337 case now reaches the Z10 and Z10-4; the USD 92.64m IEEPA refund adds roughly CNY 440m to 2026 profit but does not recur. Rating Hold: at CNY 296.88 the fully converted market cap of CNY 48.24bn is 28.8x FY2025 earnings and about 24-25x normalized 2026 earnings, near base-case rather than the CNY 200-225 conservative value, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy price is CNY 168-180. Zhejiang CFMOTO Power Co., Ltd.603129 · Shanghai摩托车与全地形车17. September 2026 42/100 73Buffett Hold Federal Signal Corporation: 70% of Q2's Incremental Sales Came From Acquisitions, Organic Growth Was 6%, and 115.33 USD Sits 9% Above the 106 USD Conservative Ceiling Federal Signal builds municipal and industrial specialty vehicles (sewer cleaners, street sweepers, hydro-excavators, refuse bodies) plus public-safety lighting and warning systems, and wraps them in an owned dealer, rental and aftermarket network that now supplies about 25% of ESG sales. Q2 2026 sales rose 19% to 670.2 million, but only about 31 million (6%) was organic while acquisitions added roughly 75 million, and the 81 million backlog decline is almost entirely the deliberate runoff of third-party Labrie refuse units rather than lost demand; adjusted EBITDA margin has climbed from 12.0% in 2016 to 20.7% LTM. Rating Hold: at 115.33 USD the shares trade at 22.1 times the 2026 adjusted EPS midpoint, above the 96-106 USD conservative value, so the margin of safety is none, the acceptable hold zone is 109-147 USD and the ideal buy price is 78-84 USD. Federal Signal CorporationFSS · USADiversified Industrials17. September 2026
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