Анализ акций · Долгий горизонт
Инвестиционная аналитика глазами долгосрочного владельца
Фреймворк Zen Horizon, разбирающий качество бизнеса, рвы и внутреннюю стоимость ИИ, технологий и мировых акций — с ясной оценкой запаса прочности.
1197 отчётов15 тем1145 тикеров
Свежая аналитика
Больше аналитики
38/100
75Buffett
DHL AG: Express Supplies 60% of H1 Group EBIT on 31% of Revenue and German Mail Volume Falls 15%, but EUR 55.02 Sits 30% Above the EUR 42.2 Conservative Value
DHL AG, renamed from Deutsche Post AG on 1 September 2026, runs five different logistics economics under one balance sheet: global Express, freight forwarding, contract logistics, eCommerce parcels and Germany's regulated postal network. Express supplied roughly 60% of H1 2026 group EBIT of EUR 3.335bn from only about 31% of revenue, with divisional EBIT up 43.5% to EUR 1.999bn at a 15.2% margin, while German mail volumes fell 15.0% and letters alone 8.5%, and 2025 dividends plus buybacks of EUR 3.569bn exceeded EUR 2.295bn of reported free cash flow. Rating Hold: a lease-inclusive sum-of-the-parts puts base value at EUR 61.5 per share against a conservative EUR 42.2, so EUR 55.02 sits 30% above the conservative case and the margin of safety is none.
38/100
78Buffett
Rio Tinto: Copper EBITDA Rose 84% on 1% More Production, and £73.74 Sits Inside a £62–82 Hold Band
Rio Tinto is a global iron ore, copper, aluminium and lithium miner whose profit mix is shifting from Pilbara iron ore toward copper, with H1 2026 underlying EBITDA of US$6.77bn from iron ore against US$5.71bn from copper and US$3.31bn from Aluminium & Lithium. Group underlying EBITDA rose 28% to US$14.8bn and the interim dividend 43% to US$2.11 a share, but consolidated copper production was only 1% higher at 442kt while copper EBITDA rose 84%, so price rather than volume did most of the work, and net debt has climbed from US$5.49bn at the end of 2024 to US$14.06bn while Pilbara replacement mines, Simandou, copper and lithium are all funded at once. Rating Hold: at £73.74 the shares sit inside the £62–82 acceptable-hold band and about 19% below May's £91.17 high, yet still well above the £44–47 ideal buy zone, so the copper transition is real while the conservative margin of safety is not.
49/100
Moncler S.p.A.: Luxury-Grade 29% Margins and EUR 1.11bn of Net Cash, but Only 38-40% of Revenue Lands in H1 and EUR 44.69 Sits 31% Above the EUR 34 Ideal Buy Ceiling
Moncler S.p.A. is an Italian luxury group built on two brands, Moncler and Stone Island, with the Moncler brand supplying 84.5% of H1 2026 revenue and 85.6% of that brand's sales running through its own stores and site. The economics are luxury-grade, with a 77.2% H1 gross margin, a 29.2% FY2025 EBIT margin and EUR 1.11bn of net cash, but the product stays concentrated and seasonal: only 38-40% of annual revenue and 24-28% of annual EBIT land in the first half, and Moncler-brand growth slowed to 3% at constant currencies in Q2 2026 while Stone Island held 11%. Rating Hold: at EUR 44.69 the shares trade near 19.1x trailing earnings, inside the EUR 44-60 acceptable-hold band but roughly 31% above the EUR 31-34 ideal buy zone, so the balance sheet and the margins are intact while the conservative-scenario margin of safety is not.
37/100
67Buffett
Gaming and Leisure Properties: AFFO Rose 10.1% While the Stock De-Rated to 9.8x, and PENN Still Writes 54.7% of the Rent
Gaming and Leisure Properties is a triple-net gaming REIT that owns and finances 71 regional U.S. casino and related facilities, collecting contractually senior rent while the operators carry almost every property-level cost. Q2 2026 AFFO rose 10.1% to USD 304.0m and management raised full-year guidance to USD 4.10–4.12 per share and unit, yet the stock fell to USD 40.24, a 9.79x P/AFFO and an 8.15% dividend yield far outside its 2023–25 valuation center. Rating Hold: the yield is paying for genuine duration and tenant-concentration risk, with PENN alone writing 54.7% of cash rent, and USD 40.24 still sits above the conservative value range of USD 36–39.
Идеи
Все идеи
- The Buffett Quality Screen, First Edition: 1,790 Companies, Six Lenses, and the 16 That Survive Both of Our Boards 6 августа 2026 г.
- Cheap With a Grievance, or Cheap for a Reason? A Value-Trap Test From 1,013 Scorecards 6 августа 2026 г.
- The Mention Map, July 2026: Four Gravity Centers, Four Holes 26 июля 2026 г.
- Круговое финансирование в AI: гениальный ход или схема Понци века? Мы пересчитали каждый доллар в контуре 7 июля 2026 г.
Избранные темы
Все 15 тем
Глобальная оборонная цепочка поставок
54 тикеровОт специальных материалов до готовых платформ: полная карта цепочки поставок в цикле перевооружения
Онкология · Редкие заболевания · Рубежи трудноизлечимых болезней
108 тикеровТаргетная / иммунная / клеточная / генная / нуклеиновокислотная терапия и радиофармпрепараты: карта передовых методов лечения болезней с высокой неудовлетворённой потребностью, а также мировых и китайских компаний, которые их создают
Нишевые чемпионы во всех отраслях
90 тикеровКомпании, которые владеют узким сегментом, занимают первое или одно из трёх первых мест в мире и обладают реальной ценовой властью: нишевые чемпионы в критических звеньях цепочки. Рамка опирается на концепцию «скрытых чемпионов» Германа Симона, но смягчает его пороги по размеру и публичности (без ограничения по размеру, без требования оставаться малозаметным). Значение имеет то, насколько узок сегмент и насколько глубоко закреплена позиция, — всё это разложено по восьми функциональным областям.
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