Equity research · The long view

Investment research through a long-term owner's lens

The Zen Horizon Framework, dissecting the business quality, moats, and intrinsic value of AI, technology, and global equities — with a clear read on the margin of safety.

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37/100 Hold Booz Allen Hamilton: The 130 Basis Point Margin Jump and the 39.48 Billion Dollar Backlog Are Both Smaller Than They Look, and 69.72 Dollars Sits Above Conservative Value A federal mission-services contractor that supplies the United States government with people, security clearances and mission technology, earning about 98% of revenue from government customers, with National Security at roughly 72% of fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue while Civil and Commercial fell 16.4%. Adjusted EBITDA margin rose 130 basis points to 11.9% in that quarter, but full-year guidance implies about 10.75% across the remaining three quarters, and of the 39.48 billion dollar backlog only 4.66 billion, or 11.8%, is funded. Rating Hold: at 69.72 dollars the shares trade above the 54 to 65 conservative range and below the base midpoint, so the margin of safety is not obvious. Booz Allen Hamilton Holding CorporationBAH · USAerospace & DefenseAug 1, 2026 51/100 Hold Salesforce: Agentforce ARR Grew 205% to 1.2 Billion Dollars, but Growth Excluding Informatica Was 8.75% and 184.02 Dollars Leaves No Margin of Safety Salesforce is the largest CRM vendor, monetizing customer workflows through subscriptions while shifting toward AI consumption, data services and outcome-based pricing. Agentforce ARR reached 1.2 billion dollars and grew 205%, but fiscal Q1 growth excluding Informatica was only 8.75% and owner earnings stay flat near 10.9 billion dollars. Rating Hold: a dominant franchise at an adequate price, with seat cannibalization unresolved because Salesforce does not disclose net seats. Salesforce, Inc.CRM · USSoftware & InternetAug 1, 2026 56/100 Hold Broadcom: AI Revenue Grew 143% to 10.8 Billion Dollars, but 389.28 Dollars Buys the Base Case at a 1.30% Owner-Earnings Yield Against 4.74% Treasuries Broadcom sells three businesses behind one ticker: custom AI accelerators designed for a handful of hyperscalers, the Ethernet networking that connects them, and an infrastructure-software franchise built from CA Technologies, Symantec and VMware; FY2025 revenue was 63.89 billion USD. Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue grew 48% to 22.187 billion USD and AI semiconductor revenue grew 143% to 10.8 billion USD, yet trailing owner earnings of 23.977 billion USD yield only 1.30% against a 4.74% ten-year Treasury, and the five largest end customers supply about 45% of revenue. Rating Hold: Q2 answered the operational doubt behind the prior Avoid, but at 389.28 USD the shares sit 33% to 43% above the 272 to 293 USD conservative value and inside the 340 to 420 USD hold zone, so the margin of safety is absent. Broadcom Inc.AVGO · USAI ChipsAug 1, 2026 38/100 Hold AECOM: A 16.5% Segment Margin and 12.1x Earnings Are Genuinely Cheap, but First-Half Free Cash Flow of 15 Million Dollars Means 72.39 Dollars Only Buys the Base Case A global infrastructure-consulting firm whose engineers, planners and program managers design and oversee transportation, water, energy and environmental projects, with government clients supplying about half of revenue and fiscal second-quarter 2026 net service revenue of 1.95 billion dollars. Segment adjusted operating margin has risen from 12.3% in fiscal 2020 to 16.5%, but adjusted EPS growth of 27% rested largely on an adjusted tax rate that fell to 13.9% from 25.0%, while first-half free cash flow was only about 15 million dollars against 685 million for the whole of fiscal 2025. Rating Hold: a genuine 12.1 times discount to peers that the cash-conversion evidence does not yet justify closing. AECOMACM · USBusiness ServicesAug 1, 2026
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