業種
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense のすべてのレポート — 全 40 件。
43/100
64Buffett
CACI International: Fiscal 2026 Revenue Grew 7.2% Organically With Technology at 58.4% of Mix, and 606.85 USD Sits 6% Above the 570 USD Conservative Ceiling
CACI International is a U.S. national-security contractor that blends security-cleared expertise with software-defined defense technology; Technology was 58.4% of fiscal 2026 revenue and defense plus the Intelligence Community together accounted for 78.2%. Fiscal 2026 revenue of 9.568 billion USD grew 10.9% on a reported basis but 7.2% organically, fiscal Q4 organic growth reached 11.6% and EBITDA margin rose to 12.3% from 11.2%, while the 2.64 billion USD ARKA acquisition that closed on March 9, 2026 took pro-forma net leverage to 3.7 times and left more than 8.5 billion USD of goodwill and acquired intangibles on the balance sheet. Rating Hold: at 606.85 USD the shares trade at 20.3 times fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS and roughly 6% above the 540 to 570 USD conservative fair value, so a margin-of-safety purchase only appears at 432 to 455 USD.
44/100
HENSOLDT AG: Can the Order Flood Pass Through the Narrow Gate of Capacity, Margin and Cash?
HENSOLDT is a German pure-play defence sensor company that embeds radar, electronic warfare and optronics into fighter jets, warships and armoured platforms, and it earns its living from the rising electronic content of each weapon system. First-half 2026 order intake doubled and the order backlog reached a record 10.356 billion EUR, yet the first-half adjusted EBITDA margin was only 11.8%, and full-year guidance requires 23.5% to 24.4% in the second half, higher than any second half of the past four years. Rating Hold: the structural growth on the order side is real, but at 79.70 EUR the share price already sits almost exactly on the base-case valuation, leaving no margin of safety.
31/100
70Buffett
SAIC: Margins and Buybacks Lift Owner Earnings to an 8.7% Yield, but a 1.0x Trailing Book-to-Bill Leaves $127.28 Above Conservative Value
Science Applications International Corporation is a U.S. federal mission and IT integrator that drew 97% of Q1 FY2027 revenue from the government, with cost-reimbursement work at 62% of the mix and Defense and Intelligence at $1.466 billion of the $1.906 billion quarter. The economics have inverted: February 2026 cut FY2027 revenue guidance to $7.0–7.2 billion after Army CASTLE-NET and Air Force Cloud One were lost, yet adjusted EBITDA guidance rose to $720–730 million and Q1 margin reached 11.6% against 8.4% a year earlier, while trailing book-to-bill sat at exactly 1.0 and only $3.736 billion of the $22.860 billion backlog was funded. Rating Hold: normalized owner earnings near $470 million yield 8.7% on a $5.38 billion market capitalization, but $127.28 sits 11–18% above the $108–115 conservative value, so a good cash yield is not a margin of safety.
40/100
38Buffett
RTX Corporation: A Record Backlog and a Documented GTF Recovery, Already Paid For by a 26% Re-Rating
RTX runs three different economic machines on one balance sheet: Collins Aerospace sells aircraft systems into a broad installed base, Pratt & Whitney accepts thin original-equipment economics to earn decades of engine aftermarket, and Raytheon sells missiles and air defense into government procurement. Second-quarter 2026 sales of 24.708 billion USD rose 16% organically, backlog reached a record 289 billion USD, PW1100 aircraft-on-ground levels fell 25% year to date, and management raised full-year guidance on sales, organic growth, adjusted EPS and the lower bound of free cash flow. Rating Hold: the operating recovery is now documented, but the shares rose 26.1% since May against a 5.5% rise in the adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, leaving 31.1 times forward earnings, a free-cash-flow yield below 3% and no margin of safety against the 150 to 165 USD conservative case.
37/100
Boeing: Second-Quarter Free Cash Flow Turned Positive, but 45–50 Times Owner Earnings Already Prices the Recovery
Boeing builds commercial aircraft, defence and space systems and sells parts, maintenance and training around a large installed fleet, supported by a 715 billion USD backlog. Second-quarter free cash flow turned positive at 631 million USD on 171 deliveries, the most since 2018, but first-half free cash flow was still negative by 823 million USD and commercial margins sat at negative 2.7%. Rating Hold: at 45–50 times transitional owner earnings, roughly 35% above the 160 USD conservative value, the price already pays for a multi-year production and margin recovery.
41/100
76Buffett
Lockheed Martin: Backlog Rose 36.8 Billion Dollars in Six Months, Mostly on a Single THAAD Action, While 19.2 Times Guided Earnings Leaves No Margin of Safety
Lockheed Martin is the largest U.S. defense prime by revenue, anchored by F-35 production and sustainment, PAC-3 and THAAD missile defense, Sikorsky helicopters and classified space work, with the U.S. government supplying about 70% of first-half 2026 sales. Second-quarter sales rose 11% to 20.063 billion USD and backlog reached 230.4 billion USD, but 35 billion USD of the 36.8 billion USD first-half increase came from one undefinitized THAAD action, and the classified Aeronautics contract still carried about 1.8 billion USD of cumulative losses. Rating Hold: at 582.74 USD the shares trade at 19.2 times guided 2026 earnings on a 5.3% free-cash-flow yield, barely above the 4.75% ten-year Treasury, and the margin-of-safety verdict is recorded as none.
38/100
Korea Aerospace Industries: Second-Quarter Revenue Rose 41% While Operating Profit Fell 43%, the 27.35 Trillion Won Backlog Converts at 13.5% a Year, and 127,300 Won Leaves No Margin of Safety
Korea Aerospace Industries is South Korea's sovereign aircraft prime, earning from the T-50 and FA-50 family, the KF-21 fighter, helicopters, sustainment and commercial aerostructures behind an order book of KRW 27.35 trillion, equal to 7.4 times 2025 revenue. That backlog converted into revenue at only 13.5% during 2025, operating cash flow has been negative for three consecutive years with a cumulative free-cash outflow of about KRW 2.70 trillion, and the second quarter of 2026 produced 41.0% revenue growth alongside a 43.1% fall in operating profit. Rating Hold: a strategically important aircraft prime entering its most consequential production ramp, priced at about 37 times forward earnings with the margin-of-safety verdict recorded as none.
37/100
76Buffett
Booz Allen Hamilton: The 130 Basis Point Margin Jump and the 39.48 Billion Dollar Backlog Are Both Smaller Than They Look, and 69.72 Dollars Sits Above Conservative Value
A federal mission-services contractor that supplies the United States government with people, security clearances and mission technology, earning about 98% of revenue from government customers, with National Security at roughly 72% of fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue while Civil and Commercial fell 16.4%. Adjusted EBITDA margin rose 130 basis points to 11.9% in that quarter, but full-year guidance implies about 10.75% across the remaining three quarters, and of the 39.48 billion dollar backlog only 4.66 billion, or 11.8%, is funded. Rating Hold: at 69.72 dollars the shares trade above the 54 to 65 conservative range and below the base midpoint, so the margin of safety is not obvious.
48/100
Hanwha Aerospace: The K9 Export Franchise Is Genuine, but at 865,000 KRW the Price Still Rides on Backlog Conversion and Capital Discipline
Hanwha Aerospace is a Korean land-defense exporter whose K9 howitzer and Chunmoo rocket-artillery franchises now fund a wider aerospace-and-shipbuilding group. Land defense turned KRW 8.13 trillion of 2025 revenue into KRW 2.01 trillion of operating profit, a 24.7% margin, while aerospace earned only KRW 2.3 billion on KRW 2.51 trillion of revenue and Hanwha Ocean supplied nearly half of consolidated sales, making the 138% headline revenue growth largely a consolidation effect. Rating Hold: the installed base behind the KRW 39.7 trillion backlog is real, but at KRW 865,000 the stock still sits above the KRW 700,000 conservative value, leaving the ideal buy zone at KRW 500,000 to 560,000.
38/100
Parsons: A Record 35% Crash Repriced Earnings Quality, and at 40.32 USD the Price Is Interesting but Not Yet Safe
Parsons is a US federal technology and critical infrastructure contractor, pairing defense and intelligence work for the US government with transportation and infrastructure programs concentrated in the Middle East. Second-quarter 2026 revenue was flat at $1.576bn and the reported adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 2.7%, normalizing to 10.1% only after $77.5m of remote-program losses and a $40.9m legacy JV charge, while management cut midpoint full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance by 17.8%. Rating Watch: the franchises and the $9.26bn backlog are real, but after a record 35.0% single-day crash the $40.32 price still sits above the $31 to $34 ideal buy zone.
46/100
82Buffett
BAE Systems: The Portfolio Moat Is Genuine, but at 20.27 GBP the Rerating Has Already Outrun Earnings Growth
BAE Systems is a UK-listed defence prime with a more American revenue base than the label suggests, spanning combat air, electronic systems, submarines, land systems and cyber. FY2025 sales reached 30.7 billion pounds with underlying EBIT of 3.322 billion and a 10.8% group return on sales, yet the 83.6 billion headline backlog shrinks to 63.1 billion on the stricter IFRS measure and segment margins run from 15.4% in Electronic Systems down to 6.7% in Maritime. Rating Hold: the breadth and the demand cycle are genuine, but at 20.27 pounds the stock trades on about 24.5 times forward earnings with a 3.6% free cash flow yield against 5.0% gilts, leaving the ideal buy zone at 12.00 to 14.50 pounds.
49/100
63Buffett
Rheinmetall: Respect Without Urgency for a Re-Rated Defence Prime
Rheinmetall is Germany's dominant defence prime, an ammunition-and-land-systems specialist riding a record €73.0bn backlog as European rearmament accelerates past €380bn in 2025 defence spending. FY2025 continuing sales rose to €9.94bn at an 18.5% margin, led by a 29.3% margin in the core Weapon and Ammunition unit, but June's abrupt cancellation of the F126 frigate programme wiped out nearly a fifth of the share price in a single day, exposing how much of the celebrated backlog is framework rather than firm order intake. Rating Hold: a genuinely stronger, cleaner defence business than it was two years ago, but a stock still priced at roughly 40x earnings for execution that has not yet been proven immune to political reversal.
49/100
58Buffett
Saab: Europe's Sovereign Defense Franchise Is Real, but the Margin of Safety Is Gone
Saab is Sweden's sovereign defense-systems house, supplying radar, missiles, Gripen fighters, submarines, and lifecycle support against a SEK 274 billion order backlog built on Europe's post-2022 rearmament. Q1 2026 sales grew 21% and EBIT 32%, the balance sheet stayed net-cash positive, and 72% of backlog is now international, yet the stock trades near 48x trailing earnings after a re-rating that already prices in unbooked wins like GlobalEye and further Gripen campaigns. Rating Hold: a genuine sovereign-systems compounder, but at SEK 564 the margin of safety is gone.
44/100
RBC Bearings: The Moat Is Real, but the Price Already Assumes the Aerospace-Defense Story Is Finished
RBC Bearings is a niche U.S. manufacturer of qualification-protected precision bearings, engineered components, and fluid-control systems for aerospace, defense, and industrial platforms, shaped over three decades by founder-CEO Michael Hartnett's 29-deal acquisition program. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached $1.87 billion as Aerospace & Defense sales grew 32.9% against 3.8% Industrial growth, backlog surged to $2.3 billion, and the stock re-rated toward premium defense-compounder multiples (about 48x adjusted EPS) even as owner-earnings yield fell near 1.8%, below the 4.27% 10-year Treasury yield. Rating Watch: an excellent, moat-protected compounder, but today's price already discounts years of successful mix conversion, leaving the ideal buy zone at $290-340.
41/100
Leonardo: A Re-Rating With Real Earnings Behind It, Priced Like the Quality Gap to BAE and Thales Is Already Closed
Leonardo S.p.A. is Italy's state-influenced aerospace and defense group, whose profit engine sits in defense electronics and helicopters and is now backed by a €56.8 billion Q1 2026 order backlog. FY2025 orders reached €23.8 billion and EBITA €1.75 billion as Europe's rearmament cycle drove a sharp re-rating, yet the stock now trades near a 30.9x trailing P/E, roughly matching cleaner peers such as Thales and BAE Systems even though Leonardo still carries a persistent state-governance discount and weaker aerostructures drag. Rating Hold: order momentum and cash generation are real, but the price already assumes much of the quality convergence that has not yet fully happened, leaving the ideal buy zone at €39-43.
46/100
77Buffett
Thales: A Genuine Defence-Electronics Quality Compounder, Priced Like the Best Case Is Already Locked In
Thales is a French defence-electronics and aerospace group whose 2025 sales reached €22.1 billion with free operating cash flow of €2.58 billion, now expanding into naval robotics through the Exail acquisition after absorbing Germany's F126 contract termination. Rating Hold: at €241.10 the stock already trades above its own historical average multiple, pricing in continued defence-cycle strength and a smooth Exail integration, leaving the ideal buy zone at €160-170.
53/100
78Buffett
HEICO Corporation:詳細調査
HEICO は FAA-PMA 認証の交換部品と高信頼性エレクトロニクスから出発し、堅実なテンポで小規模なタックイン買収を重ねることで、航空アフターマーケットを複利成長プラットフォームへと変えてきた。FY2025 には Flight Support と Electronic Technologies の二つのセグメントが、それぞれ約31.17億ドルと14.13億ドルの売上を一級の品質で稼いだ。だが331.61ドルの株価は約50倍の利益で取引されており、約31倍の同業 TransDigm を大きく上回り、安全余裕はほぼ残っていない。レーティングはホールド:割高な価格の優良企業であり、235〜260ドルの理想的な押し目ゾーンで買い直す価値がある。
46/100
58Buffett
Airbus SE 詳細調査レポート
Airbusは欧州に軸足を置く二大民間航空機メーカーの一角であり、A320neo/A350の納入、ライフサイクルサービス、防衛・宇宙プログラムを収益化している。2025年は売上高EUR 734億、顧客金融前フリーキャッシュフローEUR 45.7億、ネットキャッシュEUR 122億を計上したが、Q1 2026の納入不振でキャッシュフローはマイナスに転じ、通年870機目標の達成にはH2に月平均約87機の納入が必要であり、EUR 179.28の株価は予想PER約25xで割安ではない。レポート評価はホールド: 質の高い成熟キャッシュカウだが、現在の株価は実行修復を先取りしており、安全域はなく、より良いエントリーポイントを待つ価値がある。
46/100
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Zen Horizon Research Report
Rocket Lab is the second-largest listed commercial space player after SpaceX, with a vertically integrated stack spanning rocket design, launch, satellites, and payloads. The core thesis rests on Electron small launchers, about 30% of launch services with 21 launches and a 100% success rate in FY2025, plus Space Systems at about 70%, including the SDA USD 816 million 18-satellite contract and the USD 275 million Geost acquisition that moves the company into military payloads. Research rating Watch: FY2025 revenue reached USD 602 million, backlog rose to USD 1.85 billion, and Q1 2026 revenue reached USD 200 million, but the delayed Neutron medium-lift rocket, now pushed to Q4 2026, remains the key valuation turning point.
51/100
49Buffett
Safran SA (SAF.PA) — Zen Horizon Report
Safran is France's leading narrowbody aero-engine champion, co-owning CFM International 50/50 with GE Aerospace (the CFM56/LEAP family powers the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo, with roughly 75% share including the JV); 2025 revenue was €31.2B, split 78% civil aviation and 22% defense, with the aftermarket annuity (23,000 CFM56 plus 7,500 LEAP units in service) at the core of profit; defense has lately accelerated on France's LPM 2024-2030 act, and the CFM partnership with GE was renegotiated in 2025 to run through 2050. Rating Watch: a high-quality narrowbody-aftermarket annuity asset whose current price already fully discounts the roadmap, leaving thin margin of safety for new positions.
38/100
Voyager Technologies Research from a Long-Term Owner's Perspective
A defense-space contractor with an embedded Starlab commercial space-station option, Voyager remains deeply loss-making with negative owner earnings. The core thesis is that demand is real, but the company has not yet converted that demand into durable, distributable cash flow. Research rating Watch: at $44.96, the stock is already near the lower end of the optimistic scenario, with no margin of safety and an ideal buy range of $18 to $25.
39/100
Karman Holdings: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
Karman Holdings sits in high-quality defense and space niches with deep customer embedding, but its current financial profile is still uneven. The core thesis is that this may become a good mission-critical aerospace and defense platform, yet 2025 operating cash flow turned negative, leverage is high, tangible book value is negative, and the current price of USD 51.84 is far above a reasonable intrinsic value range of USD 13-20. Research rating Watch: an emerging good business, but at a bad price.
36/100
Frequency Electronics: A Long-Term Owner's Research View
Frequency Electronics is a small-cap niche supplier of precision timing, atomic clocks, and microwave components for satellite payloads, defense communications, electronic warfare, and secure timing, with a narrow moat. The core thesis is that the business has improved, but the current price of $72.16 stands far above the three intrinsic value ranges of conservative $9-12, base $16-22, and optimistic $28-38, with an ideal buy range of $12-16. Research rating Watch: a technically credible niche compounder deserves attention, but not at a price that already discounts years of optimistic execution.
22/100
Mercury Systems: A Long-Term Owner's Study
A supplier of high-reliability electronics and signal-processing platforms for aerospace and defense, with gross margin recovering from a fall of 41.7% to 27.9%; at $112.87 the stock trades above 90x FCF, pricing in an excellent outcome while operating quality stays unproven. Rating Avoid: a strong industry attached to an unproven turnaround already priced for perfection, with an ideal buy of $25–35.
24/100
Kencoa Aerospace: A Value Study of an Aerostructures Supplier
The Buffett framework rates Kencoa Aerospace a Watch. The company has cleared the entry barriers of the aerospace supply chain and grew Q1 2026 revenue 45% year over year, yet free cash flow was negative for five straight years (2021-2025) and a perpetual convertible bond, if fully converted, dilutes existing holders by about 67.7%. At roughly KRW 23,700 the stock already prices in a strong turnaround; fair value sits at KRW 12,000-18,000 and an ideal entry at KRW 10,000-14,000, leaving no margin of safety. Rating Watch: a barrier-cleared turnaround small cap that has not yet proven it can convert orders into durable, distributable per-share cash flow.
42/100
78Buffett
Curtiss-Wright Research from a Long-Term Owner's Perspective
Curtiss-Wright is a high-quality aerospace, defense, naval nuclear, and industrial technology compounder with strong cash generation and embedded customer relationships. At $769 per share and a $28.5 billion market capitalization, the stock trades around 48x owner earnings and 56x P/E, while my DCF points to fair intrinsic value of $300-380 and an ideal buy range of $220-300. Research rating Watch: a good business at a bad price, with little margin of safety today.
35/100
56Buffett
Moog Long-Term Owner's View Research
Moog is a precision motion-control company with defensible positions in aerospace, defense, space, and selected industrial and medical niches. Fiscal 2025 revenue reached a record $3.861 billion and margins improved to 13%, but a material weakness in internal control, uneven FCF conversion, and a stock price near $373 leave no margin of safety against an intrinsic value range of $90 to $260 and a fair buy range of $95 to $145. Report rating Watch: a better business, but not yet a value-investing entry point.
30/100
69Buffett
Woodward: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
A great company at a poor price. At roughly $344.7 today, a trailing P/E near 41.3x, and a market cap around $21.1 billion, Woodward is a genuinely durable cross-cycle earner with real engineering moats in aerospace and select industrial controls. But DCF and relative valuation both point to fair intrinsic value of $170-240, with an ideal buy range of $130-180, leaving no margin of safety at the current price. Rating Watch: a high-quality business that today looks far more like a bad price than a bad company.
44/100
Hexcel Long-Term Owner's View Research
Hexcel is a leading aerospace-grade carbon fiber and prepreg supplier, but it behaves more like a high-quality cyclical stock than a smooth compounder. At USD 88.04, the stock already prices in a recovery, while our neutral DCF is around USD 55 and fair buy range is USD 50-60. Research rating Watch: a good company, but with insufficient margin of safety.
39/100
77Buffett
Huntington Ingalls Industries: A Deep Value Investment Study
America's leading military shipbuilder, the only company able to build, refuel, and decommission nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and one of only two nuclear submarine builders, with customers that are almost entirely the U.S. government. Structural barriers to entry run extremely deep, yet ROIC sits only in the mid-single digits and cash flow swings sharply with contract timing, and at roughly $308 the market has already paid full price for that scarcity with little visible margin of safety. Rating Watch: a scarce strategic asset worth tracking, with an ideal buy range of $220-260.
43/100
64Buffett
Leidos Holdings Deep Value Investment Research
Leidos is the largest U.S. government technology and engineering contractor, with about 87% of revenue from the federal government and a profile of stable demand and real cash flow, but only a moderate moat and pricing power constrained by competitive bidding. At roughly USD 127.81, the stock sits near the lower end of a reasonable range: not expensive, but without an obvious margin of safety. Research rating Watch: a quality contractor worth tracking, with an ideal buy range of USD 95-110.
40/100
64Buffett
Textron Deep Value Investment Research
Textron is a multi-business group centered on aviation and defense with an industrial segment attached, earning money mainly through Cessna/Beechcraft business jets and Bell helicopters, with real brand and certification barriers but uneven moats across segments. At about $91.76, the stock trades at roughly 16-17 times conservative Owner Earnings, cheaper than peers but without enough margin of safety. Research rating Watch: a solid business worth tracking, with an ideal buy range of $72-$82.
43/100
Teledyne Technologies (TDY): A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
A multi-segment industrial-technology platform with solid cash-flow quality and cross-cycle resilience. But at $704 the stock already sits at the upper edge of an optimistic valuation, leaving conservative buyers without a margin of safety; the ideal buy-in range is $400-500. Rating Watch: a good company at too rich a price.
44/100
L3Harris Technologies: A Deep-Dive Value Investing Analysis
A mid-to-large U.S. defense contractor whose backlog has climbed to $40.7 billion with a book-to-bill of 1.4x; at a current PE of 34x it is pricier than most peers, so the rating is Watch with an ideal buy range of $230-250.
40/100
79Buffett
TransDigm Group: A Deep Value Investing Study
Aircraft proprietary-parts and aviation aftermarket giant with 90% proprietary-product sales, 55% aftermarket revenue, and a 53.9% EBITDA margin; at $1,213.51 the stock trades above our bullish upper bound, with an ideal buy range of $650-800. Rating Watch: exceptional business quality, but the current price offers no margin of safety.
45/100
73Buffett
Northrop Grumman: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
One of the top U.S. defense prime contractors (No. 3 globally per SIPRI), spanning B-21, Sentinel, missile defense, and space systems; at $555.58 the stock trades at about 17.4x PE but 22.6-26.4x Owner Earnings, and with the Sentinel cost breach, B-21 margin pressure, and cash flow weaker than reported profit, we assign a Watch rating.
47/100
21Buffett
GE Aerospace Deep Value Investment Research
GE Aerospace is a global leader in commercial and military aircraft engines, with a vast installed base and excellent long-tail aftermarket cash flow. At the current price of $302.84, the stock has already moved above the upper end of an optimistic scenario, leaving too little margin of safety. Rating Watch: a high-quality compounder, but not an attractive new purchase at today's valuation.
44/100
76Buffett
Lockheed Martin: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
The leading U.S. defense prime contractor, with F-35 accounting for 27% of 2025 sales and a year-end backlog of $193.6 billion. 2025 free cash flow was $6.9 billion. At the current $466 share price the stock sits within its fair-value band, but recurring program losses leave a thin margin of safety.
44/100
38Buffett
RTX Corporation: A Long-Term Value Study
A global aerospace and defense giant spanning aviation parts/systems, commercial aero-engines, and missiles/air defense, with a Q1 2026 backlog of $271 billion. At $177.01 and a 33.2x P/E, it is a good business at a full-to-rich price: the GTF powdered-metal event is still clearing and the margin of safety is insufficient. Rating Watch: worth respecting, but better to wait for a pullback.
47/100
36Buffett
Howmet Aerospace Deep Value Investment Research
Howmet Aerospace is a high-quality leader in aero-engine components and fastening systems, with a deep moat and steadily expanding margins. The core thesis is that the business is strong, but the current PE of about 59.5x already prices in years of high growth, smooth M&A integration, and sustained premium valuation, leaving too little margin of safety. Research rating Watch: an excellent aerospace compounder, but the ideal entry range is $90-125 rather than today's price.