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36/100
Recursion Pharmaceuticals: A Sub-$375m Cost Reset Buys Runway into Early 2028, but $3.63 Already Pays for About 66% of a $1.28bn Platform Option
Recursion is a clinical-stage TechBio company that sells discovery work, milestones and prospective royalties to pharmaceutical partners while funding an internally owned small-molecule pipeline, with no approved-product revenue. Q2 2026 total revenue of $7.67m sat below $11.49m of cost of revenue and a further $131m of R&D and G&A, yet management cut FY2026 cash operating expense guidance to below $375m and $556.8m of cash and restricted cash funds operations into early 2028; the headline 43% REC-4881 polyp reduction was disclosed in December 2025, not August 2026, so the post-June rebound was re-rating rather than clinical de-risking. Rating Watch: base intrinsic value is $4.40 against the $3.63 close, but the $2.80 conservative case sits below today’s price, leaving no margin of safety and an ideal buy zone of $1.90-2.20.
63/100
46Buffett
Palantir Technologies Inc.: 93% Growth and a 47% GAAP Operating Margin, but $174.33 Already Equals the $172 Optimistic DCF Value
Palantir Technologies builds data-integration and AI decision platforms for Western governments and large commercial enterprises, funded by about $9.2 billion of liquidity and essentially no conventional debt. The gap between an accelerating business and an already-optimistic price is the whole case: Q2 2026 revenue grew 93% to $1.935 billion at a 47% GAAP operating margin, with U.S. commercial revenue up 149% and U.S. commercial remaining deal value up 124% to $6.238 billion, yet the fully diluted $447.8 billion equity value works out to roughly 149x trailing earnings, 133x conventional free cash flow and 178x SBC-adjusted owner earnings. Rating Watch: $174.33 sits outside all three modelled bands, above the $94-126 acceptable-hold range but below the $190-215 clearly-overvalued line, and it already equals the roughly $172 optimistic DCF value, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy range is $33-41.
45/100
MiniMax Group Inc.: Platform Revenue Grew 703% to 63.4% of Sales While Gross Margin Is Still Only 17.9%, and HK$361.40 Prices the Optimistic 2030 Case
MiniMax is a Shanghai-based foundation-model developer that sells the same intelligence twice, through consumer apps such as Hailuo and Talkie and through an Open Platform API used by enterprises and developers. The revenue engine has genuinely outrun the May thesis: H1 2026 revenue of US$116.6 million grew 283% and exceeded all of FY2025, while Open Platform revenue rose 703% to 63.4% of sales. The economics have not followed. Consolidated gross margin fell to 17.9% from FY2025's 25.4%, and R&D of US$296.9 million ran at 2.55 times revenue and roughly fourteen times gross profit. Rating Watch: at HK$361.40 the stock is about six times the HK$60 conservative present value and twice the roughly HK$180 base case, so new money is pointed at HK$40 to 48.
37/100
80Buffett
Nestlé S.A.: A Narrow RIG Recovery Behind a 15-16x Operating Multiple Once L'Oréal's CHF 35bn Is Stripped Out, and CHF 78.31 Leaves No Conservative Margin of Safety
Nestlé is the world's largest packaged-food group, economically concentrated in coffee, PetCare and nutrition, and it separately owns 20.16% of L'Oréal. The gap between a repairing operating company and an already-repaired price is the whole case: Q2 RIG reached 1.8% while pricing slowed to 1.9%, but developed-market H1 RIG was only 0.6% with Europe at zero in Q2, and H1 net profit fell 31.4% on CHF 469m of restructuring and a CHF 1.356bn held-for-sale write-down. Rating Hold: CHF 78.31 sits inside the CHF 72-92 acceptable-hold band and below a low-CHF80s base value, but above the CHF 68-73 conservative range, and stripping out the CHF 35bn discounted L'Oréal stake still leaves the operating business at 15-16 times normalized UTOP, so the margin of safety is none and new money should wait for CHF 54-58.
27/100
70Buffett
Tsingtao Brewery: H1 Volume Fell 4.9% While Profit Held Flat on Cost Savings, and CNY51.49 Is 12% Above Conservative Value
Tsingtao Brewery is a national Chinese brewer anchored in Shandong that monetises its master brand through premium mix while aggregate beer volumes decline, with mid/high-end products now about 75.5% of main-brand volume and no financial debt on the balance sheet. H1 2026 shows the margin story running ahead of the volume story: volume fell 4.9% to 4.500 million kL and revenue to CNY19.655bn, yet attributable profit still rose CNY15.5m, because gross margin improved from 43.70% to 44.86% and selling expense fell CNY274m, roughly CNY167m of that beyond what lower volume alone explains. The competitive read is harder than the industry read, because national output rose 0.2% over the same half while China Resources Beer grew volume 1.7% and premium volume above 10% against Tsingtao's 2.6%. Rating Hold: CNY51.49 sits inside the CNY48-64 acceptable-hold band on 15.3x trailing earnings and a mid-4% yield, but roughly 12% above the CNY46 conservative fair value, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy range is CNY34-36.
38/100
74Buffett
Skanska AB: A Record SEK 297.5bn Backlog Rests on a 4.3% Contractor Margin, and SEK 271.90 Leaves No Conservative Margin of Safety
Skanska is a Swedish contractor building in the Nordics, the United States and Central Europe while committing its own balance sheet to residential and commercial property development. The gap between those two halves is the whole case: Construction turned SEK 165.9bn of rolling revenue into a 4.3% operating margin and a record SEK 297.5bn backlog worth 21 months of production, yet more than SEK 60bn of capital sits in development businesses returning 1.3% against a 10% target, and two rounds of US commercial-property write-downs totalling roughly SEK 1.13bn have already landed. Rating Hold: SEK 271.90 sits inside the SEK 270-340 acceptable-hold band and below the roughly SEK 313 base sum-of-the-parts value, but about 15% above the SEK 237 conservative value, so an existing position is defensible while new money should wait for SEK 180-190.
34/100
20Buffett
Endeavour Mining plc: Gold Did the Work While Ounces Fell 13%, and £47.23 Already Prices In a Risked Assafou
Endeavour Mining is a five-mine West African gold producer operating in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal at about 1.2Moz of annual scale, with a net-cash balance sheet and one large undeveloped Ivorian project, Assafou. H1 2026 revenue of US$2.569bn, adjusted EBITDA of US$1.611bn and US$761m of free cash flow look excellent, but production fell 13% to 564koz while reported AISC rose 46% to US$1,871/oz: the realised gold price rose 55% to US$4,579/oz and contributed roughly US$1.07bn against about US$458m lost to lower volumes, so bullion rather than ounces or unit costs produced the improvement. Rating Hold: £47.23 sits inside the £41.25-55.80 acceptable-hold band but roughly 35% above the £35.05 conservative value modelled at US$3,000/oz gold, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy range is £26.00-28.00.
27/100
BP p.l.c.: $22.3bn of Headline Net Debt Sits Inside a $55bn Obligation Stack, and £5.397 Leaves No Conservative Margin of Safety
BP is an integrated oil-and-gas major whose upstream, refining, marketing and one of the industry’s largest supply-and-trading books generate the cash now funding a balance-sheet repair and an aggressive portfolio simplification. The gap between appearance and economics is the whole case: Q2 2026 underlying replacement-cost profit of $5.7bn and $10.9bn of operating cash flow cut headline net debt to $22.3bn, but hybrids, leases and residual Gulf settlement liabilities push the economically relevant obligation stack toward roughly $55bn, while buybacks have been suspended since February 2026 and the 30–40% operating-cash-flow distribution rule has been retired. Rating Hold: £5.397 sits inside the £5.20–£6.80 acceptable-hold band but roughly 19% above the £4.55 conservative fair value, so an existing position is defensible while new money should wait for £3.55–£3.65.
31/100
66Buffett
Zangge Mining: A Copper Associate It Does Not Control Now Drives Four-Fifths of Profit, and CNY 76.15 Already Pays for It
Zangge Mining is a Qinghai salt-lake producer of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate whose reported earnings are now dominated by a 30.78% equity-method interest in Julong Copper, an associate it neither consolidates nor operates. In H1 2026 consolidated revenue was only CNY 2.065bn while attributable net profit reached CNY 3.638bn, because Julong alone contributed CNY 2.839bn of investment income, 78.03% of attributable profit, on CNY 15.004bn of associate revenue that never enters Zangge’s top line. Rating Hold: at CNY 76.15 the stock sits inside the CNY 72-82 base sum-of-the-parts region and well above the CNY 58-62 conservative value, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy range is CNY 46-49.
35/100
41Buffett
Aker BP ASA: The 2028 Cash Inflection Is Sanctioned and Tax-Shielded, but NOK 356 Leaves No Conservative Margin of Safety
Aker BP is a Norwegian-shelf pure-play exploration and production company with no refining, fuel retail, trading or renewable earnings to cushion it, operating the Alvheim, Eiga, Skarv, Valhall and Ula hubs alongside a Johan Sverdrup interest that alone supplied 213.5 of its 383.6 thousand boe/d in Q2 2026. The equity case rests on investment rather than revenue: on the company-published consensus, investment cash flow falls from USD 7.323bn in 2026 to USD 2.564bn in 2028, lifting owner free cash flow after cash interest from USD 1.365bn to USD 3.173bn even as operating cash flow declines, and Norway’s 78% marginal petroleum tax means the headline USD 12.5-13.0bn Yggdrasil and USD 7.3-7.6bn Valhall PWP-Fenris estimates cost shareholders far less than they appear to. Rating Hold: NOK 356 sits below the NOK 385-425 base fair value but above the NOK 300-325 conservative value, the 6.94% indicated dividend is not covered by 2026 owner cash flow, and the ideal buy range is NOK 240-260.
31/100
83Buffett
Herbalife Ltd.: Real Volume Growth, Concentrated in India, on a Leveraged Balance Sheet
Herbalife Ltd. sells nutrition and weight-management products through an independent multi-level distributor network across more than 90 markets, and weight management was 54.5% of 2025 net sales. Q2 2026 was a fourth consecutive growth quarter at $1.327 billion of sales, up 5.4% and driven by real volume rather than price or currency, but India alone supplied 20% of worldwide quarterly revenue while China fell 29.0% in constant currency and worldwide sales per qualified sales leader are no higher than in 2022. Rating Watch: at roughly 4.3 times guided EV/EBITDA the equity is a leveraged residual claim on $680 million of EBITDA behind $1.669 billion of net debt, and $12.17 sits above the $9-11 conservative value, so the margin-of-safety verdict is none until the shares approach the $7-9 ideal buy range.
37/100
74Buffett
JD Sports Fashion plc: Cheap Cash Flow, Falling Like-for-Like Sales, and the Cost of Control
JD Sports Fashion is a global multi-brand sports-fashion retailer that resells branded footwear and apparel through 4,811 stores in 36 countries, and FY26 showed how much of its growth now comes from buying rather than selling: reported revenue rose 10.5% to GBP 12.662bn while like-for-like sales fell 2.1% and adjusted pre-tax profit fell 7.7% to GBP 852m. Trading has worsened since, with Q2 FY27 group like-for-like down 3.1% and North America, the largest market, down 6.8%, prompting a cut to FY27 profit guidance even as free-cash-flow guidance held at GBP 460m to 520m. Rating Watch: at GBP 0.8398 the shares trade on about 7.2 times adjusted earnings with an 11.5% free-cash-flow yield, but sit roughly 12% above the GBP 0.75 conservative value, so the margin-of-safety verdict is none until they approach the GBP 0.55 to 0.60 ideal buy range.
38/100
53Buffett
Tesco PLC: A Decade-High Market Share, Bought With Margin, and a 53-Week Year That Flatters Statutory Profit
Tesco is the UK's largest grocer, combining national food retail, Clubcard-led customer data, Booker wholesale and a smaller Central European arm, and in FY2025/26 it held 28.5% of the UK grocery market, its highest share in more than a decade. That share was bought rather than given: on the 52-week adjusted basis, sales excluding fuel rose 4.3% at constant rates to GBP 66.588bn while adjusted operating profit rose just 0.6% to GBP 3.152bn, and the far healthier statutory operating-profit growth of 10.1% comes from a 53-week reporting year plus a GBP 233m reduction in impairment charges rather than from any operating improvement. Rating Hold: the cash generation, the share gains and the GBP 750m buyback are all real, but at GBP 4.715 a mid-teens earnings multiple already discounts most of the post-2020 repair, and the ideal buy range is GBP 3.20 to 3.40.
41/100
70Buffett
Valmet Oyj: Two Businesses, One Share Price, and a Separation Thesis Already Partly Priced
Valmet is a Finnish process-technology group that sells pulp, board, paper and tissue production lines alongside automation, valves and mill services, and its two segments earn very differently: Process Performance Solutions turned EUR 1.481 billion of 2025 sales into a 19.6% comparable EBITA margin while Biomaterial Solutions and Services turned EUR 3.716 billion into 10.3%. That gap frames the formal review the board opened on 24 July 2026 into separating the two into independently listed companies, with an update promised no later than the full-year results on 4 February 2027; the shares jumped 22% that day, while first-half BSS capital-equipment book-to-bill fell to about 0.72x, leaving 2027 revenue dependent on orders not yet booked. Rating Hold: the base sum-of-the-parts of EUR 33.4 a share sits above the EUR 28.56 price, but the price is already about 9% above the EUR 26.3 no-split value, so the margin-of-safety verdict is none until the shares approach the EUR 19 to 21 ideal buy range.
40/100
32Buffett
TotalEnergies: USD 27.5bn of Owner Earnings, 33.4 GW of Power, and No Obvious Margin of Safety at EUR 77.61
TotalEnergies is the Paris-listed integrated energy major that runs a low-cost hydrocarbon engine alongside a deliberately scaled electricity business, reporting its accounts in USD while the share and dividend are set in EUR. Group CFFO was USD 27.8 billion in 2025, and owner earnings near USD 27.5 billion put the shares on about 7.3 times, yet Integrated Power reached 33.4 GW of net installed capacity by Q2 2026 while earning about 10% ROACE in 2024 against a 12% target. Rating Hold: at EUR 77.61, close to the EUR 81.34 52-week high with Brent near USD 95, the shares sit inside the EUR 72 to 82 base-case value and 19 to 29% above the EUR 60 to 65 conservative case, well clear of the EUR 48 to 52 ideal-buy zone.
39/100
68Buffett
AutoNation: 78.3% of Q2 Gross Profit Comes From After-Sales and F&I, but $201.25 Offers No Margin of Safety
AutoNation is a U.S. franchised auto retailer whose economics increasingly come from after-sales, dealership F&I and a rapidly scaling captive lender rather than low-margin vehicle sales. Q2 2026 adjusted net income fell 10% while adjusted EPS rose 2% because diluted shares declined 12%; meanwhile, the ANF portfolio reached $2.67 billion and corporate leverage rose to 2.77× as buybacks and acquisitions outspent adjusted free cash flow. Rating Hold: the $201.25 share price sits inside the $195–265 acceptable-hold band but well above the $130–140 ideal-buy zone, leaving no conservative margin of safety.
44/100
78Buffett
Shenzhou International: 22.6% H1 Gross Margin and 75.9% Customer Concentration Leave No Conservative Margin of Safety at HK$36.58
Shenzhou International is a vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer producing fabric and garments across China, Vietnam and Cambodia, with sportswear at 63.8% of H1 2026 revenue. H1 revenue fell 5.3%, gross margin dropped to 22.6% and attributable profit declined 40.0%, while the top three customers supplied 75.9% of sales and new overseas capacity raised fixed-cost risk. Rating Hold: HK$36.58 sits near the low end of the HK$36–49 acceptable-hold band but above the HK$20–23.5 ideal-buy zone, leaving no conservative margin of safety.
52/100
68Buffett
Wise: A Record-Low 50-Basis-Point Take Rate Still Drives 26% Volume Growth, but a Quarter of Net Revenue Is Interest and $13.04 Has No Margin of Safety
Wise moves money across borders at the mid-market rate plus a transparent fee, and now also sells cards, local account details, business services and Wise Platform infrastructure while earning interest on the customer balances it safeguards. FY2026 net revenue reached $2.503 billion and income before tax $660.4 million, but cross-border transfer fees were only 50.2% of net revenue and net interest 24.3%, and Wise's own sensitivity shows a 100-basis-point rate cut would have removed $148.5 million, or 22.5%, of pre-tax income. Rating Hold: the pricing flywheel still works, with a record-low 50-basis-point take rate driving 26% volume growth in Q1 FY2027, but management's normalized 15-20% margin target sits below the reported 26.4% and $13.04 stands well above the $7.50-8.00 ideal buy zone, leaving no conservative margin of safety.
47/100
71Buffett
Haid Group: Feed Gross Profit Rose CNY 0.55 Billion, Farming Gross Profit Fell CNY 1.46 Billion, and CNY 46.24 Offers No Conservative Margin of Safety
Haid Group is an integrated Chinese animal-nutrition group built around feed, seedstock, animal health and on-farm technical service, selling 14.78 million tonnes of external feed in H1 2026. Attributable profit fell 38.95% to CNY 1.611 billion and adjusted profit fell 50.81%, but the segment bridge shows farming gross profit dropping about CNY 1.46 billion while feed gross profit rose about CNY 0.55 billion, so the damage was a hog-cycle event rather than a break in the feed franchise. Rating Hold: at CNY 46.24 the shares sit inside the CNY 45 to 61 acceptable-hold band but well above the CNY 37 to 42 conservative value, with the ideal buy zone at CNY 30 to 33 and no conservative margin of safety today.
37/100
72Buffett
Mueller Industries: 64% of Q2's Revenue Jump Was Copper Price, Not Demand, and $62.80 Sits 12% to 21% Above the Conservative Value
Mueller Industries buys copper, brass and aluminum and sells fabricated tube, fittings, rod, wire, cable, valves and refrigeration components, so its economics are fabrication spreads rather than the metal price. Q2 2026 revenue rose 25.5% to $1.428 billion, but $184.6 million of the $289.8 million increase, or 64%, came from raw-material-linked selling prices and only $17.4 million from core unit volume, while roughly $1.41 billion of net cash funds acquisitions whose returns are still unproven, with Nehring earning $25.9 million of 2025 operating income on a roughly $569 million purchase price. Rating Hold: at $62.80 the shares sit inside the $58 to $78 acceptable-hold band and 12% to 21% above the $52 to $56 conservative value, with the ideal buy zone at $41 to $44 and no margin of safety today.
42/100
78Buffett
Jerónimo Martins: EBITDA Up 7.6%, Net Profit Down 3.5%, and No Conservative Margin of Safety
Jerónimo Martins is a Portuguese-listed food retailer whose economics are overwhelmingly Polish: the Biedronka discount chain generates roughly 70% of group sales and 80% of EBITDA, alongside Pingo Doce and Recheio in Portugal and the Ara chain in Colombia. H1 2026 EBITDA rose 7.6% while attributable net profit fell 3.5%, a gap that traces to IFRS 16 lease accounting and a 22.7% jump in net financial costs rather than to store economics, even as Polish food deflation held Biedronka like-for-like sales to +0.2% against roughly 5% volume growth. Rating Hold: the volume-led margin resilience is real, but EUR 17.97 sits above the EUR 16.75 conservative value and leaves no margin of safety.
44/100
73Buffett
DICK'S Sporting Goods: A 12.6% Core Margin, a Loss-Making Foot Locker, and 11.8 Times Earnings
DICK'S Sporting Goods is the leading U.S. full-line sporting-goods retailer, and since September 2025 it also owns Foot Locker, a global athletic-footwear network with very different economics. The split is the investment case: in Q2 FY2026 the DICK'S Business earned a 12.6% segment margin on $3.85 billion of sales while Foot Locker lost $31.9 million on $1.74 billion, and cumulative cleanup charges of $515.8 million already equal about 20.6% of the $2.5 billion purchase consideration. After the 30.68% August 25 selloff the shares trade at 11.8 times the guided GAAP midpoint. Rating Watch: the core franchise is intact, but Foot Locker's negative returns and rising all-in investment leave no margin of safety at $135.09.
39/100
73Buffett
Service Corporation International: Cemetery Gross Profit Now Exceeds Funeral, but a 6.5% Owner-Earnings Yield Sits Only 1.8 Points Above Treasuries
Service Corporation International is North America's largest funeral-and-cemetery operator, running about 1,495 funeral homes and 505 cemeteries and carrying a $17.62 billion preneed backlog funded through trusts and insurance. Cemetery gross profit has already overtaken funeral, offsetting comparable funeral volume that fell 1.4% in Q2 2026 while a 64.8% cremation rate keeps pressing the average ticket. Rating Hold: at $83.36 the shares trade at 19.85 times guided EPS with a 6.5% owner-earnings yield only 1.8 points above Treasuries, and the ideal buy zone is $60 to $65.
37/100
65Buffett
Reliance: Q2's 5.3-Point Industry Beat Shrinks to 0.1 Point Without the Border Wall, and $387.59 Already Sits Inside the Base-Case Band
Reliance is North America's largest metals-service-center network, buying metal from mills, carrying thousands of grades in inventory, processing it to customer specification and delivering small lots fast, so it earns processing and distribution spreads rather than steel prices. Q2 2026 tons rose 10.8% against 5.5% for the MSCI industry benchmark, but the Department of Homeland Security border-wall project supplied 5.2 of those points, leaving underlying growth of about 5.6% and an industry beat of one-tenth of a point. Rating Hold: at $387.59 the shares sit inside the $350 to $420 base band and 19% to 27% above the conservative value, with the ideal buy zone at $230 to $240 and no margin of safety today.