Report Archive
All Research
Page 4 of 50 · 1197 reports
47/100
45Buffett
NKT: A EUR 13bn Transmission Backlog and Rising Margins, but DKK 930 Already Pays for the 2027 Factories That Are Still Being Built
NKT A/S is a Danish power-cable maker centred on high-voltage subsea and land transmission, carrying a EUR 13.0bn Transmission backlog at market prices at end-Q2 2026. H1 2026 revenue at standard metal prices fell 6.4% to EUR 1,267m while operational EBITDA rose 8.1% to EUR 201m and the margin widened from 13.8% to 15.8%, a pattern that points to project phasing rather than weak demand, yet free cash flow was still negative EUR 341m as a roughly EUR 2bn capacity build runs to 2027. Rating Hold: at DKK 930 the shares trade near 14.7x 2026 EV/EBITDA and just above the DKK 902 base-case value, leaving no discount at all to the DKK 691 conservative case.
35/100
Uni-President China: A 7% Yield Backed by a 100% Payout, but the Beverage Arm That Is Almost Two-Thirds of Sales Has Stopped Growing
Uni-President China Holdings is a mainland packaged-food and beverage group pairing premium instant noodles such as Soup Daren and The King of Tomato with tea, milk tea and juice brands; beverages alone were 62% of H1 2026 revenue. That larger half has stopped growing, with tea down 3.5% and juice down 5.5% while food revenue rose 4.7% and food segment profit rose about 34%, and Nongfu Spring's 29% tea growth to RMB21.596bn points at mix and positioning rather than a dead category. Rating Hold: at HK$7.78 the shares yield 7.1% on a 100% payout backed by RMB9.19bn of net cash, but they sit about 18% above the HK$6.58 conservative value, so the conservative margin of safety is zero.
47/100
Camtek: Record Advanced-Packaging Orders Meet a Price That Already Discounts Them
Camtek sells semiconductor inspection and metrology systems, and roughly three quarters of its revenue now comes from advanced packaging, the capacity build-out behind AI chips. Revenue grew from $155.9 million in 2020 to $496.1 million in 2025 and more than $600 million of orders arrived between January and July 2026, but second-quarter non-GAAP operating margin of 27% sat below the 30.3% of a year earlier and China alone was 49% of 2025 revenue. Rating Hold: at $146.66 the stock trades near 52 times normalized 2025 owner earnings, inside the $130 to $170 acceptable-hold zone but far above the $86 to $96 ideal buy range, so there is no margin of safety.
33/100
77Buffett
Tingyi: A Mature Cash Cow Whose Profit Growth Comes From Margin, Not Sales
Tingyi is a China-focused packaged-food and beverage group whose Master Kong instant noodles sit alongside a beverage arm that combines its own tea, water and juice brands with PepsiCo-licensed bottling; that beverage arm alone is 65.5% of H1 2026 revenue. Group revenue has barely moved since 2022, from RMB 78.717 billion to RMB 79.068 billion in 2025, yet attributable profit rose 71% as gross margin climbed from 29.09% to 35.8% in H1 2026, and beverages contribute only about half of owner earnings once minority interests are stripped out. Rating Hold: at HKD 13.16 the shares trade near 13.8 times reconstructed trailing earnings with a roughly 7% distribution yield, inside the HKD 12.0 to 15.5 acceptable-hold zone but about 25% above the HKD 10.5 conservative value, so the conservative margin of safety is zero.
51/100
72Buffett
Nova: Record Q2 Revenue of $255 Million and 26% Guided Growth, but 45x Trailing GAAP Earnings Leave No Margin of Safety
Nova Ltd. supplies optical, materials and chemical metrology hardware plus modelling software for semiconductor process control, with service around one-fifth of revenue and a portfolio assembled through ReVera, ancosys and Sentronics rather than built on a single measurement principle. Q2 2026 set records across gate-all-around logic, advanced packaging and chemical metrology, lifting quarterly revenue to $255.0 million, and Q3 guidance of $277-287 million implies about 26% year-over-year growth at the midpoint; yet H1 operating cash flow converted only 0.56x of GAAP net income, China is still 33% of sales and one customer is 23%. Rating Hold: at $362.75 the shares trade near 45x trailing GAAP earnings and roughly 21% above the $300 conservative scenario value, so the growth is real but the price already capitalizes much of the next leg.
37/100
73Buffett
Encompass Health: A Proven Bed-Building Compounder Priced With No Margin of Safety
Encompass Health is the largest U.S. inpatient rehabilitation hospital operator, running 176 hospitals and, since the 2022 Enhabit separation, drawing about 97% of revenue from a single medically intensive post-acute setting paid mainly by Medicare. Second-quarter 2026 discharges rose 5.6% and revenue per discharge 3.9%, lifting inpatient revenue 9.8%, while 2026 capex guidance of 920 million to 995 million USD against only 232 million USD of maintenance shows how capital-intensive the growth has become. Rating Hold: the de novo machine and the discharge growth are real, but at 120.92 USD the shares trade near 19.7 times guidance EPS, inside the 115 to 145 USD hold zone and above the 111 to 118 USD conservative value, leaving no margin of safety.
35/100
75Buffett
Orkla: Zero Organic Growth in the Controlled Portfolio, Jotun Operating Profit Up 21%, and a 21% NAV Discount at NOK 97.10
Orkla ASA is a Norwegian industrial investment company that owns independently run Nordic branded-consumer businesses plus a 42.7% equity-accounted stake in the unlisted coatings producer Jotun, whose revenue never enters Orkla's consolidated accounts. Q2 2026 split the company in two: organic growth in the controlled portfolio companies was zero and underlying EBIT grew only 2.5%, while Jotun's underlying sales and operating profit rose 11% and 21% and carried group adjusted EPS on their own. The 2025 listing of Orkla India, still roughly 75% owned, now supplies an external price for one portfolio company. Rating Hold: base sum-of-the-parts of NOK 123.4 per share leaves a 21% raw NAV discount at NOK 97.10, but the price still sits 23% above the conservative investable value of NOK 79.1, so there is no margin of safety.
41/100
56Buffett
Nextpower Inc: Tracker Leadership Is Real, the Platform Premium Still Has to Be Earned
Nextpower Inc., renamed from Nextracker in November 2025, is the world's largest utility-scale solar tracker supplier, with roughly 88% of FY2026 revenue still tracker-derived while it expands into electrical balance of system, inverters and battery storage. FY2026 revenue grew 20.3% to 3.56 billion USD, but Section 45X manufacturing credits contributed 379.9 million USD, or 10.7% of revenue, and FY2027 guidance pairs 19.4% midpoint revenue growth with just 1.7% adjusted EPS growth as adjusted EBITDA margin falls from 24.0% to about 21.2%. Rating Hold: the tracker franchise and its cash generation are real, but at 84.72 USD the shares sit inside the 79 to 105 USD acceptable-hold zone at roughly 23 times owner earnings, with no margin of safety against the 72 USD conservative anchor.
42/100
71Buffett
Restaurant Brands International: Burger King US Comps at 8.5%, Popeyes US at -5.2%, and No Margin of Safety at $81.57
Restaurant Brands International is the Canadian-domiciled franchisor behind Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs, with more than 95% of its 33,156-restaurant system franchised and most of its economics sitting in royalty and property income rather than restaurant sales. The Q2 2026 headline of 3.8% comparable sales conceals two opposite businesses: Burger King US comps ran 8.5% and International grew comps and units at roughly 5% each, while Popeyes US fell 5.2% and Tim Hortons Canada managed 0.1%. Rating Hold: the operating turn is real, but at $81.57 the stock trades at 20.8 times TTM adjusted EPS on 4.1 times net leverage, about 13% above the conservative fair-value midpoint, leaving no margin of safety.
52/100
34Buffett
Hyosung Heavy Industries: A KRW 17.5 Trillion Grid Backlog, 94% of Segment Profit from Power Equipment, and No Margin of Safety at KRW 2.79 Million
Hyosung Heavy Industries is a Korean maker of ultra-high-voltage grid equipment whose transformer and switchgear franchise now sits alongside a large, low-margin domestic construction business. The profit mix has shifted decisively: heavy industry earned KRW 698.8 billion of 2025 operating profit at a 16.8% margin against construction's KRW 47.7 billion at 2.6%, roughly 94% of the two segments' combined profit, while the heavy-industry order backlog reached about KRW 17.5 trillion by mid-2026 on a 3.72x first-half book-to-bill. Rating Hold: the 765 kV franchise and U.S. local production are genuinely scarce, but at KRW 2.79 million the price already underwrites most of that improvement, leaving realised construction PF losses and 2027-29 industry capacity additions as unpaid risks.
46/100
52Buffett
Wärtsilä: A Record EUR 2.849 Billion Order Quarter, 57% of Sales from Service, and No Margin of Safety at EUR 29.46
Wärtsilä is the Helsinki-listed marine-and-flexible-power OEM whose installed base turns equipment sales into decades of service revenue, 57.1% of 2025 continuing-operation sales. Comparable operating margin has more than doubled from 5.6% in 2022 to 12.0% in 2025, Q2 2026 order intake set an all-time record of EUR 2.849 billion, and the Energy equipment backlog carries more than 500 basis points of additional gross margin versus the start of 2025, but full factory capacity does not arrive until the first quarter of 2029. Rating Hold: at EUR 29.46 the stock trades on about 26.3 times trailing earnings and a 4.1% to 4.3% owner-earnings yield against a Finnish 10-year government bond near 3.6%, so the conservative EUR 25 to 27 value leaves no margin of safety.
43/100
44Buffett
MPLX LP: A 1.3x-Covered 7.4% Yield, $2.9 Billion of Growth Capex, and No Margin of Safety at $58.41
MPLX is a $59.3 billion K-1 master limited partnership controlled by Marathon Petroleum, pairing a mature MPC-anchored liquids-logistics network with a faster-growing natural-gas and NGL platform that now drives almost all incremental growth. Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA attributable to MPLX was $1.775 billion, roughly 65% liquids and 35% gas/NGL, and trailing-twelve-month distributable cash flow of $5.74 billion covers the $4.306 annualized distribution 1.3 times; leverage has nevertheless climbed from 3.1 to 3.7 times while a $2.9 billion growth-capital program outruns retained cash. Rating Hold: at $58.41 the units trade near 11.8 times consolidated EBITDA on a 9.7% DCF yield, above the $49 to $52 conservative intrinsic value, leaving no margin of safety.
31/100
27Buffett
Shell plc: $22.4 Billion Returned on 52% of Cash Flow, an Eight-Year Reserve Life, and No Margin of Safety at £34.10
Shell is the London-listed integrated energy major whose economic centre is upstream production plus a global LNG portfolio it runs as a merchant trading book, selling 66 million tonnes in 2024 against roughly 50 mtpa of owned liquefaction capacity. Integrated Gas and Upstream produced $15.5 billion of the group's $18.5 billion of 2025 adjusted earnings and Shell distributed $22.4 billion, 52% of its $42.9 billion of operating cash flow, but the trading contribution that most differentiates it is never separately disclosed and static proved-reserve life is only about eight years. Rating Hold: at £34.10 the share sits at the top of the £31 to £34 conservative fair-value range, so the cash-return machine is real while the entry price leaves no conservative-case margin of safety.
44/100
79Buffett
Sandvik AB: A Record 22.6% Margin With SEK 550 Million of Tungsten Inside It, and No Margin of Safety at SEK 368.70
Sandvik is a Swedish industrial group selling mining equipment, rock-processing machinery, metal-cutting consumables and manufacturing software, with aftermarket and other recurring revenue at about 40% of 2025 sales against 31% in 2019. Q2 2026 set a record 22.6% adjusted EBITA margin, but a company-disclosed SEK 550 million tungsten benefit was worth 380 basis points to Machining, and stripping it mechanically returns the group to roughly 21.1%, inside management's 20% to 22% through-cycle target rather than above it. Rating Hold: at SEK 368.70 the shares trade near 26.2 times trailing adjusted earnings against a SEK 363 base value and a SEK 273 conservative value, leaving no margin of safety.
44/100
72Buffett
ACS Equity Research: Construction Scale, AI Infrastructure, and the Cost of a Re-rating
ACS is the Madrid-listed infrastructure group whose earnings now come mainly from Turner's North American construction-management business and from the operations it controls through Hochtief. First-half 2026 sales were €26.17 billion and attributable net profit €510 million, with Turner's backlog at a record €46.1 billion on a 4.0% EBITDA margin, but the group fully consolidates a Hochtief it owns 77.77% of, so €149.5 million of the half's consolidated income belonged to minority shareholders rather than to ACS. Rating Hold: at €105.60, roughly 24 to 25 times the report's estimate of 2026 operational earnings, the re-rating is earned but the €72 to €80 conservative value leaves no margin of safety.
31/100
70Buffett
Shaanxi Coal Industry: A Low-Cost Mine Base, 9.32 GW of Unfinished Power, and a 2026 Recovery Already in the Price
Shaanxi Coal Industry is a Shaanxi provincial SOE that mined 174.889 Mt in FY2025 from a low-cost northern-Shaanxi resource base, and since the end of 2024 it has also owned 88.6525% of a power platform carrying 20.18 GW of coal-fired capacity, 9.32 GW of it still under construction. FY2025 revenue fell 14.10% to RMB 158.179 billion and attributable profit fell 25.02% to RMB 16.765 billion even as output rose 2.58%, because realized coal price dropped 16.59% to RMB 443.78/t; power gross profit rose only about RMB 0.169 billion against a RMB 13.856 billion fall in coal gross profit, an offset of 1.2%. Rating Hold: at CNY 25.55 the shares already trade at about 16.1 times FY2025 ex-item earnings and 12 to 13 times normalized earnings, so the 2026 recovery is largely in the price while the unfinished power fleet absorbs the cash that would otherwise lift the 3.71% yield.
32/100
68Buffett
H&M: The Margin Repair Is Real, the Growth Engine Is Not, and 23.8x Leaves No Cushion
H&M is a global mass-market fashion retailer that owns no factories, selling through 4,038 stores and an online channel above 30% of group sales. The operational repair is real and the growth is not: operating margin has climbed from 3.2% in FY2022 to 8.1% in FY2025 and roughly 8.5% rolling at May 2026, and H1 FY2026 adjusted EBIT rose 14% to SEK 8.104bn while inventory fell 10%, yet local-currency sales still fell 1% and the large sourcing tailwind enters the prior-year comparison base from Q3 FY2026. Rating Hold: at SEK 182.65, or 23.8x trailing EPS of SEK 7.68, the price sits about 26% above the SEK 145 conservative value and offers no margin of safety until roughly SEK 105 to 116.
40/100
66Buffett
Danone: 55% of Profit in One Category, a Shrinking Chinese Birth Cohort, and Why 17.3x Leaves No Margin of Safety
Danone is a global branded food group whose economic centre has moved away from its dairy revenue base: Specialized Nutrition supplied 34.0% of FY2025 sales but EUR 2,016m of EUR 3,665m recurring operating income, or 55.0%, at a 21.7% margin against 8.5% for dairy and plant-based. Renew Danone restored volume-led growth and lifted recurring margin from 12.2% in 2022 to 13.4% in 2025, but H1 2026 free cash flow fell 27.3% to EUR 852m on a EUR 337m working-capital swing while a shrinking Chinese birth cohort pressures the largest profit pool. Rating Hold: at EUR 65.68, or 17.3x recurring EPS, the price sits above the EUR 58 to 62 conservative value and offers no margin of safety until roughly EUR 46 to 49.
37/100
78Buffett
Swisscom AG: A 4.25% Dividend, a Finite Italian Synergy Bridge, and No Margin of Safety at CHF 635
Swisscom AG is Switzerland's incumbent telecom operator, 51% owned by the Confederation, which turned itself into a two-country group by buying Vodafone Italia for EUR 8 billion in an entirely debt-financed deal that closed at the end of 2024. Switzerland still earns a 43.9% first-half EBITDAaL margin on a slowly shrinking base, while Italy, now about 44% of revenue, grew EBITDAaL 12.9% on revenue down 3.3% as merger costs come out; group free cash flow covered the CHF 26 dividend only 1.06 times in 2025. Rating Hold: at CHF 635 the 4.25% yield is well supported against a 0.47% Swiss ten-year, but the price is 22% to 27% above a conservative CHF 500 to 520 value, leaving no margin of safety.
39/100
69Buffett
China Yangtze Power: Six Dams, a 70% Payout Floor, and Why 15.5x Owner Earnings Still Leaves No Margin of Safety
China Yangtze Power operates 71.695 GW across six Yangtze cascade stations, close to one fifth of China's conventional hydro capacity, and adds an overseas platform built around Peruvian distribution worth about 3.5% of attributable profit. FY2025 operating cash flow of RMB 60.563 bn ran 1.76x attributable net profit, and after finance costs and roughly RMB 9.0 bn of estimated maintenance capex the stock sits near 15.5x owner earnings against a 20.15x accounting P/E, while the 2026 to 2030 plan fixes a minimum 70% payout. Rating Hold: scarce hydro assets and a contractual payout floor justify a premium, but CNY 28.42 is already well above the CNY 24.17 conservative value and offers no margin of safety until roughly CNY 18.1 to 19.3.
46/100
72Buffett
Prosus N.V.: A 38.4% NAV Discount, a Tencent-Funded Buyback, and No Conservative Margin of Safety
Prosus N.V. is the Amsterdam-listed consumer-internet group whose largest asset is a roughly 22.6% Tencent stake, now sitting alongside operating businesses in food delivery, classifieds, payments and travel that turned EUR 8.36 billion of FY2026 ecosystem revenue into EUR 1.12 billion of adjusted EBITDA. Tencent is 77.7% of net asset value while the shares trade at EUR 37.895, a 38.4% discount to the published EUR 61.5 NAV per share, narrowed from roughly 54% when the open-ended buyback began in 2022. Rating Hold: the discount is real and the buyback still accretive, but a conservative sum-of-the-parts of EUR 34.75 leaves no margin of safety at the current price.
45/100
82Buffett
NewMarket Corporation: The Cash Cow, the Rocket-Propellant Option, and What the Market Now Prices
NewMarket pairs Afton and Ethyl, a four-player lubricant-and-fuel-additive oligopolist that supplies about 90% of group revenue, with AMPAC ammonium perchlorate and Calca high-purity hydrazine, two qualification-constrained rocket-propellant assets bought for USD 915 million and now adding more than 50% AP capacity. First-half 2026 shows both sides of that trade: Petroleum Additives held a 22.1% operating margin while shipment volume fell 5.3%, and Specialty Materials sales rose 30.9% to USD 125.3 million while operating profit rose only about 3% to USD 34.8 million. Rating Hold: the additive moat and the defense scarcity are both real, but a 2026 rally that lifted the P/E from about 13.9 to 20.4 times on flat revenue leaves USD 947.02 roughly 43% above the USD 660 conservative value, with no margin of safety until about USD 500 to 525.
44/100
81Buffett
Simpson Manufacturing: A Genuine Specification Moat, but Guidance Implies Second-Half Margin Drops From 25.2% to About 17%
Simpson Manufacturing makes the code-tested structural connectors, fasteners and anchoring systems that hold light-frame buildings together, and its economics rest on engineer specification plus local availability rather than on the steel itself, which is why North America earned a 30.2% operating margin in the second quarter of 2026 while consolidated margin reached 25.2%. The quality of that growth was much weaker than the margin print: sales rose 6.3% on price, mix and currency while unit volume fell about 1%, and full-year guidance of 19.7%-20.5% implies roughly 17.5% in the second half, or about 16.6% once a planned land-sale gain is removed. Rating Hold: the specification moat is real and the balance sheet holds more cash than debt, yet at $189.84 the shares already sit 15%-23% above the $155-165 conservative intrinsic range, leaving no margin of safety until about $120-132.
45/100
81Buffett
ANDRITZ: Service Reached 46% of Revenue, but the Record Backlog Is Hydro-Heavy and Margin-Dilutive
ANDRITZ is an Austrian process-plant engineer supplying pulp and paper, hydropower, metals and environmental systems, and service on its installed base now provides 46% of revenue, up from 35% in 2018. H1 2026 order intake rose 25.2% to EUR 5.92 billion and the backlog reached a record EUR 12.60 billion, but Hydropower supplies roughly half of that book at a 7.1% comparable EBITA margin against 8.6% for the group, so the record order book is margin-dilutive at today's business-area profitability and turns neutral only near an 8% Hydro margin. Rating Hold: at EUR 79.50 the shares sit about 18% above the EUR 67.6 conservative sum-of-the-parts and offer no margin of safety, with the ideal buy range at EUR 50 to 54.