業種
Software & Internet
Software & Internet のすべてのレポート — 全 39 件。
63/100
46Buffett
Palantir Technologies Inc.: 93% Growth and a 47% GAAP Operating Margin, but $174.33 Already Equals the $172 Optimistic DCF Value
Palantir Technologies builds data-integration and AI decision platforms for Western governments and large commercial enterprises, funded by about $9.2 billion of liquidity and essentially no conventional debt. The gap between an accelerating business and an already-optimistic price is the whole case: Q2 2026 revenue grew 93% to $1.935 billion at a 47% GAAP operating margin, with U.S. commercial revenue up 149% and U.S. commercial remaining deal value up 124% to $6.238 billion, yet the fully diluted $447.8 billion equity value works out to roughly 149x trailing earnings, 133x conventional free cash flow and 178x SBC-adjusted owner earnings. Rating Watch: $174.33 sits outside all three modelled bands, above the $94-126 acceptable-hold range but below the $190-215 clearly-overvalued line, and it already equals the roughly $172 optimistic DCF value, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy range is $33-41.
53/100
95Buffett
Manhattan Associates: 26% Cloud Growth Sits Inside 9.3% Total Revenue Growth, Existing Customers Supplied 75% of Q2 New Cloud Contract Value, and 40x SBC-Adjusted Owner Earnings Leaves No Margin of Safety
Manhattan Associates sells cloud-native supply-chain execution software for warehouses, orders and transportation, with Q2 2026 revenue of USD 297.8 million and remaining performance obligations of USD 2.47 billion. The widely quoted 26% cloud-subscription growth sits inside a company growing 9.3% overall, where services are still 44.7% of revenue, existing customers supplied 75% of Q2 new cloud contract value, and stock compensation near 10% of revenue separates adjusted EPS from shareholder economics. Rating Hold: a genuinely high-quality franchise whose USD 197.39 price sits inside the USD 170 to USD 215 fair band and roughly 40 times SBC-adjusted owner earnings, leaving no margin of safety.
51/100
64Buffett
Salesforce: Agentforce ARR Grew 205% to 1.2 Billion Dollars, but Growth Excluding Informatica Was 8.75% and 184.02 Dollars Leaves No Margin of Safety
Salesforce is the largest CRM vendor, monetizing customer workflows through subscriptions while shifting toward AI consumption, data services and outcome-based pricing. Agentforce ARR reached 1.2 billion dollars and grew 205%, but fiscal Q1 growth excluding Informatica was only 8.75% and owner earnings stay flat near 10.9 billion dollars. Rating Hold: a dominant franchise at an adequate price, with seat cannibalization unresolved because Salesforce does not disclose net seats.
65/100
85Buffett
Alphabet: Search and Cloud Are Both Accelerating, but a 200 Billion Dollar Build Has Turned Free Cash Flow Negative and 333.68 Dollars Already Prices In the Base Case
Alphabet is a global internet platform whose high-intent Search advertising funds YouTube, Google Cloud and a frontier AI infrastructure build; FY2025 revenue was 402.8 billion USD. Second-quarter 2026 revenue grew 24% to 119.8 billion USD and Cloud grew 82% to 24.8 billion USD at a 35.6% operating margin on a 514 billion USD backlog, yet capital expenditure of 44.9 billion USD exceeded operating cash flow and produced negative free cash flow of 5.9 billion USD, with FY2026 guidance raised to 195 to 205 billion USD. Rating Hold: on roughly 130 billion USD of estimated owner earnings the shares trade near 31 times rather than the reported 16.8 times, so 333.68 USD sits at the 335 USD base intrinsic value with no conservative margin of safety.
50/100
Procore Technologies: Operating Leverage Finally Shows, but a 16%-of-Revenue Stock-Compensation Bill Leaves 48.82 USD Fairly Priced Rather Than Cheap
Procore is the leading construction-management SaaS platform, pricing subscriptions by product mix and annual construction volume rather than by seat. Q2 2026 revenue rose 15.8% to 375.2 million USD with a 21.5% non-GAAP operating margin, yet stock compensation at 16.1% of revenue holds GAAP operating margin at just 1.2%. Rating Hold: real operating leverage arriving at a fair price, with the ideal buy band at 34–36 USD.
67/100
91Buffett
Microsoft: Azure Demand Is Real and the Moat Is Intact, but 393 USD Already Prices a Clean Conversion of the 190 Billion USD Capex Wave
Microsoft is a cash-rich enterprise software and cloud platform whose profit pool sits in Productivity and Intelligent Cloud, and it is now funding an unprecedented AI infrastructure build. Fiscal 2025 produced 281.7 billion USD of revenue and 136.2 billion USD of operating cash flow, yet calendar-2026 capex is guided at roughly 190 billion USD and trailing free cash flow falls from 72.9 billion to 41.7 billion USD once finance leases are counted. Rating Hold: the moat and the Azure demand are real, but 393 USD already assumes that capex wave converts cleanly into owner earnings.
52/100
65Buffett
Oracle Corporation
Oracle is an enterprise software and cloud infrastructure vendor whose database and applications cash engine is now funding a massive AI data-center build-out. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached 67.4 billion USD and remaining performance obligations hit 638 billion USD, but capex of 55.7 billion USD drove free cash flow to negative 23.7 billion USD, and S&P cut the credit rating to BBB- in July. Rating Hold: the 34% fall from the previous report's 181 USD reference point has absorbed much of the financing anxiety, but at 119.90 USD there is still no meaningful margin of safety for new money.
61/100
Figma: The Platform Role Is Real, but Dilution and the Last Unlock Leave No Margin of Safety
Figma is a browser-native collaborative design platform that monetizes Full, Dev, and Collab seats across Professional, Organization, and Enterprise plans, with governance add-ons and, since March 2026, paid AI credits layered on top. Q1 2026 revenue rose 46% to $333.4 million and net dollar retention reached 139%, yet GAAP gross margin fell to 79% from 91% a year earlier as AI hosting costs jumped, and roughly $1.96 billion of unrecognized stock-based compensation still sits on the books. Rating Watch: the platform role looks more durable than the market's AI-obsolescence narrative implies, but dilution, margin pressure, and a final 77.7 million-share lock-up release leave no margin of safety at $22.94.
49/100
85Buffett
Bentley Systems: Durable Infrastructure Compounder, Thin Margin of Safety
Bentley Systems is a specialized infrastructure-engineering software vendor whose economic engine is a recurring estate embedded in civil, utility, and owner-operator workflows, with $1.495 billion ARR, 93% recurring revenue, 99% account retention, and 109% net retention. Full-year 2025 revenue rose 11.0% to $1.502 billion and free cash flow reached $520.2 million, yet a dual-class structure leaves the Bentley Control Group with about 62.8% of voting power and the $30 price sits roughly at conservative fair value. Rating Hold: a high-quality, sticky compounder whose cash conversion the headline P/E understates, but founder control and a thin margin of safety make a fresh buy more attractive below $25.
48/100
Asana: 見かけ上は割安、戦略面ではなお未証明
Asanaは、中型株のシート課金型ワークマネジメントSaaSであり、成熟しつつあるランド・アンド・エクスパンド型モデルの上に従量課金型AIを重ねているが、FY2026売上高7億9080万ドルのほぼすべてはなお主力プラットフォームに結びついている。2026年の投資論点は明快な強弱対立であり、FY2026の非GAAP営業利益は5670万ドルへ黒字転換し、Q1 FY2027にはAI製品が純新規ARRの17%に達した一方、売上成長は高い一桁台まで鈍化し、経営陣はPLGが約2ポイントの逆風であると引き続き示している。レーティングはウォッチであり、株価は予想EV/売上高約1.5倍と見かけ上は割安だが、ディスカウントが解消されるにはAIがシート成長の成熟を相殺できるというより確かな証拠が必要である。
51/100
JFrog：ソフトウェアサプライチェーン、成功を織り込んだ株価
JFrogはArtifactoryのアーティファクト管理を中核とするソフトウェアサプライチェーン基盤を販売し、クラウドが売上の51%を占めるまでになり、その上にセキュリティとAIモデルガバナンスを積み上げている。2025年の売上高は5億3180万ドルで24%増、2026年第1四半期は26%増・ネットドルリテンション120%だったが、2026年通期ガイダンスの6億2800万～6億3200万ドルは約18.5%成長にとどまることを示し、株式報酬1億5670万ドルがフリーキャッシュフローを上回るため、オーナー利益は表面上のキャッシュに届かない。EV/売上高は約15.4倍とGitLabの4.7倍に対し、株価はすでに将来の成功の多くを織り込んでいる。レーティングはホールド：クラウドとセキュリティは本物の第2成長ドライバーだが、78.48ドルの株価はその成功の大部分をすでに織り込み、安全余裕はない。
53/100
monday.com：黒字のWork OS、まるで壊れたかのような株価
monday.comはローコードのWork OSを提供するSaaSベンダーであり、顧客はプロジェクト管理、CRM、サービス、開発の各領域にまたがる業務ワークフローを自ら構築する。現在、シート課金中心の価格体系から、シートにAIクレジットを加えるモデルへの転換を進めている。強気と弱気の核心はマネタイズの持続性にある。2026年第1四半期の売上は24%増の3.513億ドル、粗利益率89%、調整後フリーキャッシュフローは1.028億ドルに達したが、経営陣は2026年の成長率をわずか19%〜20%としかガイドせず、エージェント課金やトークンベースの売上をいまだモデル化できないと認めている。そのため株価は予想EV/売上で約1.6倍と、はるかに高い同業他社を大きく下回る。レーティングは慎重な買い。なお黒字でキャッシュも潤沢なワークフロー基盤が、まるで成長エンジンがすでに壊れたかのように値付けされている一方、大口顧客の獲得は過去最高を更新しており、実態はそれを否定している。
52/100
Constellation Software：割高な水準にある複利成長マシン
Constellation Softwareは分散型の資本配分マシンであり、1100社を超える自律的な垂直市場ソフトウェア事業を買収して無期限に保有し、粘着性の高いリカーリングな保守キャッシュフローを9つの事業グループにまたがるニッチ買収へと複利的に再投資しています。投資の論点はいまや品質ではなく価格と継続性にあります。2026年第1四半期の売上高は20%増の31億8100万米ドル、オーガニック成長率6%、株主に帰属するフリーキャッシュフローは7億3300万米ドルに達した一方、株価2882.02カナダドルは実績PER58.7倍、当該キャッシュフローの22.9倍で取引されており、創業者Mark Leonardの2025年の退任とAIへの懸念が見通しを曇らせています。評価はホールド：希少なソフトウェアの複利成長マシンですが、現在の価格は依然として十分な継続性を前提としており、安全余裕は薄いです。
50/100
HubSpot詳細リサーチ
HubSpotは中小企業およびミッドマーケット向けの統合CRMプラットフォームであり、2025年末時点で有料顧客は288700社に達し、マーケティングツールからAIエージェントとシート課金型SaaSへ進化している。2025年売上高は31.3億米ドル、前年比19%増、GAAP営業利益は黒字転換し、フリーキャッシュフローは5.95億米ドルに達したが、バリュエーションはなおTTMベースP/E約99倍で、AI主導の価格体系再構築は未検証である。投資判断はホールド：ファンダメンタルズは堅調だが、新規参入は理想買いゾーンである135-145米ドルへの調整を待ちたい。
48/100
76Buffett
Kingsoft Office In-Depth Research
Kingsoft Office is China's leading office software company, with revenue supported by WPS personal subscriptions, institutional licensing, and collaboration SaaS. In 2025, revenue reached 5.929 billion yuan, WPS AI MAU climbed to 80.13 million, and annual paying personal users approached 49 million, but the surge in Q1 2026 net profit was mainly driven by investment income while operating PE still sits around 55x. Rating Hold: AI has truly moved into the conversion layer, but reported profit is distorted and valuation remains expensive.
49/100
83Buffett
Dassault Systèmes: A Zen Horizon Framework Deep-Dive Research Report
Dassault Systèmes is a global leader in industrial software, built around the 3DEXPERIENCE platform and a virtual-twin portfolio spanning CATIA, SOLIDWORKS, SIMULIA, DELMIA, and Medidata. FY2025 revenue was €6.24 billion (+4% cc), recurring revenue was 82% of software revenue, non-IFRS operating margin was 32%, and the company held net cash, making it a very high-quality subscription software franchise. Rating Watch: a durable compounder whose valuation has de-rated sharply, but whose growth has not yet stabilized enough to create a clear margin of safety.
47/100
58Buffett
GoDaddy Long-Term Value Investment Research
GoDaddy is an SMB digital platform that starts with domains and extends into websites, email, marketing, payments, and commerce tools. At about $85.83, the stock has fallen back into a researchable range, with a conservative owner-earnings multiple of roughly 9-11 times and a 20%-30% discount to neutral intrinsic value, though the margin of safety is not thick; the ideal buy range is $70-$80. Research rating Cautious Buy: a durable cash-flow compounder with real platform value, but not enough downside protection for an aggressive position.
46/100
Tyler Technologies Deep Value Investment Research
Tyler Technologies is the leading U.S. vertical software provider for local governments, spanning courts, public safety, tax, ERP, and payments, with recurring revenue at 87%, client retention at 98%, and very high switching costs. The core thesis is that this is a high-quality, durable business, but the current share price of about $313 already embeds a premium for quality software and leaves limited margin of safety. Report rating Watch: a compounder worth tracking, with an ideal buy range of $220 to $260.
45/100
Trimble Deep Value Investment Research
Trimble is an industrial software, positioning/field systems, and logistics platform company that is shifting from hardware toward subscription and recurring revenue. Its moat is a stack of moderate advantages, cash-flow quality is improving, but governance still carries blemishes. Research rating Watch: at about USD 56, the stock looks closer to fair value than cheap, with insufficient margin of safety and an ideal buy range of USD 38-45.
48/100
51Buffett
PTC Deep Value Investment Research
PTC is an industrial software vendor whose CAD/PLM/ALM/SLM tools form a product-data backbone for manufacturing customers, with roughly 95% recurring revenue, high switching costs, and strong cash conversion. The business quality is sound, but at the current share price of about $138.73, the conservative owner-earnings yield is only around 4%, not generous relative to U.S. Treasuries, leaving an insufficient margin of safety. Research rating Watch: a durable compounder worth tracking, with a preferred entry range of $95 to $115.
47/100
58Buffett
Gen Digital In-Depth Value Investment Research
Gen Digital is a consumer digital-safety subscription platform built around Norton, Avast, LifeLock, and MoneyLion's financial-wellness capabilities. The core thesis is that the business is asset-light and highly cash-generative, but its moat is only moderate to weak given limited entry barriers, free platform bundling, and roughly $8.2 billion of debt. Research rating Watch: a reasonable cash-flow compounder, but the current price near $25.79 does not offer a clear margin of safety versus an ideal buy range of $20-23.
54/100
85Buffett
Veeva Systems: A Deep Value Investing Study
The dominant vertical SaaS provider built solely for life sciences, with 1,552 customers, FY2026 revenue of $3.195 billion, net income of $909 million, and almost no interest-bearing debt. A great business at an unremarkable price, with an ideal buy range of $125-140. Rating Watch: a high-quality compounder worth tracking closely, but today's price leaves no clear margin of safety.
50/100
64Buffett
Salesforce: A Long-Term Owner's View
Salesforce is the global CRM leader, with FY2026 revenue of $41.525 billion, free cash flow of $14.402 billion, subscriptions at 95% of revenue, and cRPO of $35.1 billion. At the current share price of $180.07, the stock trades at roughly 13.5 times conservative owner earnings, within a reasonable value band but without a clear margin of safety. Research rating Watch: a high-quality software platform whose cash-flow durability is evident, but whose current price leaves limited room for execution risk.
51/100
61Buffett
ServiceNow: A Value Investing Study
The leading enterprise workflow operating-system platform (post-split share price $102.25), with strong subscription stickiness and high cash-flow quality, yet on a conservative Owner Earnings basis that treats stock-based compensation as a real cost, the roughly 41x multiple still looks tight; ideal buy range $70-85. Rating Watch: an excellent business, but at today's price you are buying the expectation of continued excellence rather than an obviously undervalued asset.
53/100
Zscaler: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
A high-quality, subscription-heavy cloud security platform: FY2026 Q2 subscription mix at 84%, steady ARR growth, and 3.5 billion in net cash. The catch is price: forward EV/S near 8.2x, P/FCF near 33x, GAAP still in the red, and heavy stock-based compensation that drags down true owner earnings, leaving today's roughly 180 dollars sitting at the low end of an optimistic scenario. Rating Watch: an excellent business at a price that offers conservative investors little margin of safety.
52/100
52Buffett
Workday: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
FY2026 subscription revenue is 92% of the total, subscription backlog stands at 28.1 billion dollars, and gross retention is 97%, so business quality is solid. But how you treat stock-based compensation directly determines real shareholder returns, buyback timing has been off (average price 226.62 dollars versus 128.14 today), and the stock looks cheap on P/FCF yet not cheap on a GAAP basis, leaving a thin margin of safety. Rating Watch: a high-quality operator that has not yet earned an unarguable margin of safety.
56/100
44Buffett
Shopify：コマース・インフラ・プラットフォーム
独立系マーチャント向けのコマースOSであり、2025年のGMVは3784億ドル、売上高は115.56億ドル、報告FCFは20.07億ドルに達した。SBCと融資事業に拘束される資本を差し引くと、保守的なオーナー利益はわずか12億ドル程度で、理想的な買い場は1株75-95ドルである。ウォッチ：質の高い複利成長企業だが、保守的に見れば現在価格にはまだ十分な安全余裕がない。
48/100
66Buffett
Roper Technologies Research from a Long-Term Owner's Perspective
Roper has largely completed its transition from an industrial acquisition platform into a vertical-software holding platform, with software at 77.6% of revenue and recurring plus highly repeatable revenue at 67.3%. The current price is attractive on a conservative owner-earnings basis, but high goodwill, elevated intangible assets, and net debt/EBITDA of about 3.1x mean the margin of safety is real but not thick. Research rating Cautious Buy: a durable compounder with valuation support, but execution and acquisition discipline still matter.
55/100
85Buffett
Alphabet Inc.: A Long-Term Business Owner's Study
A top-tier platform cash machine whose 2025 revenue cleared $400 billion for the first time, with a Search cash cow layered on a Cloud/AI upcycle. At roughly $383.47 the shares already sit near the top of the optimistic case, leaving thin margin of safety. Conservative intrinsic value is $90-120, fair value $200-260, optimistic $340-390. Rating Watch: a superb business worth tracking, but wait for the price rather than chase it.
52/100
Datadog: A Value Investing Deep Dive
A high-quality cloud observability platform with 30% growth and strong cash flow, but at the current 218.04 dollars it trades 56%-129% above a fair intrinsic value of 95-140 dollars, leaving no margin of safety. Rating Watch: an excellent business whose price already prices in years of flawless execution.
48/100
96Buffett
Adobe Investment Research from a Long-Term Business Owner's Perspective
Adobe is a high-quality subscription software platform across creative, document, and marketing workflows, with gross margins near 90%, very strong cash flow, and net leverage close to zero. The company is being repriced for AI risk, while the current price of $253.37 is roughly 10x free cash flow and the ideal buy range is $220-280. Research rating Cautious Buy: a durable compounder with improved odds, but not enough margin of safety for an indiscriminate large position.
52/100
72Buffett
Autodesk: A Deep Value Investment Analysis
A high-stickiness leader in professional design software, with FY2026 recurring revenue at 97% of total and free cash flow of 2.4 billion dollars. But at roughly 244 dollars the stock sits in the optimistic zone, SBC erodes true earnings, and the margin of safety is thin. Rating Watch: a high-quality compounder priced for optimism rather than safety; ideal buy range 140-180 dollars.
42/100
93Buffett
Infosys: In-Depth Value Investing Research
A global IT services leader with solid cash flow, ample net cash, and steady governance; FY26 revenue of $20.2 billion, but with low industry growth and AI potentially compressing the billing model, the current price of $12.72 leaves a thin margin of safety. Rating: Watch.
55/100
65Buffett
Oracle Corporation: A Long-Term Business Owner's Perspective
A sticky database/ERP software cash cow layered with a capital-intensive AI/OCI expansion: an excellent business, but at roughly $181 the stock already sits near the top of the optimistic case. Rating Watch: a great company whose current price leaves little margin of safety.
55/100
91Buffett
Microsoft: A Deep Value Investment Study
A long-term, platform-monopoly stickiness machine with relentless cash generation and a front-row reinvestment seat into the AI era; at the current price the market cap sits near $3.15 trillion, putting it on roughly 28x conservative Owner Earnings and a strict 43x FCF. At $423.54 the stock is close to fair value but lacks a margin of safety, with a sensible buy range of $300–360 (fair value $390–470 at a 20–30% discount). Rating Watch: a superb business at a reasonable-to-slightly-rich price, worth following closely rather than chasing here.
57/100
44Buffett
アマゾン：長期オーナーの視点から
小売ネットワーク・AWS・広告・サードパーティ出品者を束ねる最上位クラスの複利プラットフォームであり、2025年の売上高は7169億ドル、営業利益は800億ドルに達する。ただしAI設備投資が1283億ドルへ急増した結果、TTMフリーキャッシュフローはわずか12億ドルにとどまっている。現値264.86ドルは楽観シナリオの上限近辺に位置し、安全余裕は薄い。フェアバイは150〜210ドル、余裕を持った参入は120〜155ドル。レーティングはウォッチ：世界トップクラスの事業ではあるが、価格は『安く買える偉大さ』ではなく『高くついた卓越性』として付けられている。
61/100
46Buffett
長期保有者の視点で見るPalantir
Palantirは「高成長だが慢性的赤字」から「高成長かつ強力なキャッシュフロー」へと転換した企業である。FY2025は売上高44.75億ドル（+56%）、株主帰属GAAP純利益16.25億ドル、フリーキャッシュフロー21.01億ドルを記録し、2026年Q1は売上高が85%増、米国コマーシャル部門は133%増となった。しかし現在の133.99ドル、時価総額3445億ドルは、実績PEで約150.6倍、P/FCFで約128倍、SBC調整後P/OEで約176倍に相当し、ほぼ完璧を織り込んだ価格設定の優良企業であって、長期保有に値するが今日の価格で取得する価値はない。レーティングはウォッチ。10年に及ぶ並外れた成功をすでに価格に織り込んだ、質の高いコンパウンダーである。
51/100
Cloudflare: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
A high-quality growth asset that is richly priced: DBNRR of 118% and 4,416 large customers spending $100K+ are still expanding, yet Q1 2026 gross margin slipped from 76% to 71%, and at $197.56 the market has already pulled forward a decade of high growth and margin expansion, with little evidence of high-quality owner earnings net of stock-based compensation. Rating Watch: an excellent business at a demanding price that leaves no margin of safety today.
49/100
83Buffett
Apple: A Long-Term Owner's View
Apple is a world-class consumer technology platform with exceptional ecosystem depth, services monetization, and cash generation. The core thesis is that the business remains highly durable, but the current price already reflects much of the quality, buybacks, AI optionality, and services growth while leaving limited room for uncertainty around AI access points, EU antitrust economics, and Greater China. Report rating Watch: a high-quality compounder worth following closely, but not a clear margin-of-safety purchase at today's valuation.