レポートアーカイブ
すべてのリサーチ
50 ページ中 3 ページ · 全 1197 本
40/100
32Buffett
TotalEnergies: USD 27.5bn of Owner Earnings, 33.4 GW of Power, and No Obvious Margin of Safety at EUR 77.61
TotalEnergies is the Paris-listed integrated energy major that runs a low-cost hydrocarbon engine alongside a deliberately scaled electricity business, reporting its accounts in USD while the share and dividend are set in EUR. Group CFFO was USD 27.8 billion in 2025, and owner earnings near USD 27.5 billion put the shares on about 7.3 times, yet Integrated Power reached 33.4 GW of net installed capacity by Q2 2026 while earning about 10% ROACE in 2024 against a 12% target. Rating Hold: at EUR 77.61, close to the EUR 81.34 52-week high with Brent near USD 95, the shares sit inside the EUR 72 to 82 base-case value and 19 to 29% above the EUR 60 to 65 conservative case, well clear of the EUR 48 to 52 ideal-buy zone.
39/100
68Buffett
AutoNation: 78.3% of Q2 Gross Profit Comes From After-Sales and F&I, but $201.25 Offers No Margin of Safety
AutoNation is a U.S. franchised auto retailer whose economics increasingly come from after-sales, dealership F&I and a rapidly scaling captive lender rather than low-margin vehicle sales. Q2 2026 adjusted net income fell 10% while adjusted EPS rose 2% because diluted shares declined 12%; meanwhile, the ANF portfolio reached $2.67 billion and corporate leverage rose to 2.77× as buybacks and acquisitions outspent adjusted free cash flow. Rating Hold: the $201.25 share price sits inside the $195–265 acceptable-hold band but well above the $130–140 ideal-buy zone, leaving no conservative margin of safety.
44/100
78Buffett
Shenzhou International: 22.6% H1 Gross Margin and 75.9% Customer Concentration Leave No Conservative Margin of Safety at HK$36.58
Shenzhou International is a vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer producing fabric and garments across China, Vietnam and Cambodia, with sportswear at 63.8% of H1 2026 revenue. H1 revenue fell 5.3%, gross margin dropped to 22.6% and attributable profit declined 40.0%, while the top three customers supplied 75.9% of sales and new overseas capacity raised fixed-cost risk. Rating Hold: HK$36.58 sits near the low end of the HK$36–49 acceptable-hold band but above the HK$20–23.5 ideal-buy zone, leaving no conservative margin of safety.
52/100
68Buffett
Wise: A Record-Low 50-Basis-Point Take Rate Still Drives 26% Volume Growth, but a Quarter of Net Revenue Is Interest and $13.04 Has No Margin of Safety
Wise moves money across borders at the mid-market rate plus a transparent fee, and now also sells cards, local account details, business services and Wise Platform infrastructure while earning interest on the customer balances it safeguards. FY2026 net revenue reached $2.503 billion and income before tax $660.4 million, but cross-border transfer fees were only 50.2% of net revenue and net interest 24.3%, and Wise's own sensitivity shows a 100-basis-point rate cut would have removed $148.5 million, or 22.5%, of pre-tax income. Rating Hold: the pricing flywheel still works, with a record-low 50-basis-point take rate driving 26% volume growth in Q1 FY2027, but management's normalized 15-20% margin target sits below the reported 26.4% and $13.04 stands well above the $7.50-8.00 ideal buy zone, leaving no conservative margin of safety.
47/100
71Buffett
Haid Group: Feed Gross Profit Rose CNY 0.55 Billion, Farming Gross Profit Fell CNY 1.46 Billion, and CNY 46.24 Offers No Conservative Margin of Safety
Haid Group is an integrated Chinese animal-nutrition group built around feed, seedstock, animal health and on-farm technical service, selling 14.78 million tonnes of external feed in H1 2026. Attributable profit fell 38.95% to CNY 1.611 billion and adjusted profit fell 50.81%, but the segment bridge shows farming gross profit dropping about CNY 1.46 billion while feed gross profit rose about CNY 0.55 billion, so the damage was a hog-cycle event rather than a break in the feed franchise. Rating Hold: at CNY 46.24 the shares sit inside the CNY 45 to 61 acceptable-hold band but well above the CNY 37 to 42 conservative value, with the ideal buy zone at CNY 30 to 33 and no conservative margin of safety today.
37/100
72Buffett
Mueller Industries: 64% of Q2's Revenue Jump Was Copper Price, Not Demand, and $62.80 Sits 12% to 21% Above the Conservative Value
Mueller Industries buys copper, brass and aluminum and sells fabricated tube, fittings, rod, wire, cable, valves and refrigeration components, so its economics are fabrication spreads rather than the metal price. Q2 2026 revenue rose 25.5% to $1.428 billion, but $184.6 million of the $289.8 million increase, or 64%, came from raw-material-linked selling prices and only $17.4 million from core unit volume, while roughly $1.41 billion of net cash funds acquisitions whose returns are still unproven, with Nehring earning $25.9 million of 2025 operating income on a roughly $569 million purchase price. Rating Hold: at $62.80 the shares sit inside the $58 to $78 acceptable-hold band and 12% to 21% above the $52 to $56 conservative value, with the ideal buy zone at $41 to $44 and no margin of safety today.
42/100
78Buffett
Jerónimo Martins: EBITDA Up 7.6%, Net Profit Down 3.5%, and No Conservative Margin of Safety
Jerónimo Martins is a Portuguese-listed food retailer whose economics are overwhelmingly Polish: the Biedronka discount chain generates roughly 70% of group sales and 80% of EBITDA, alongside Pingo Doce and Recheio in Portugal and the Ara chain in Colombia. H1 2026 EBITDA rose 7.6% while attributable net profit fell 3.5%, a gap that traces to IFRS 16 lease accounting and a 22.7% jump in net financial costs rather than to store economics, even as Polish food deflation held Biedronka like-for-like sales to +0.2% against roughly 5% volume growth. Rating Hold: the volume-led margin resilience is real, but EUR 17.97 sits above the EUR 16.75 conservative value and leaves no margin of safety.
44/100
73Buffett
DICK'S Sporting Goods: A 12.6% Core Margin, a Loss-Making Foot Locker, and 11.8 Times Earnings
DICK'S Sporting Goods is the leading U.S. full-line sporting-goods retailer, and since September 2025 it also owns Foot Locker, a global athletic-footwear network with very different economics. The split is the investment case: in Q2 FY2026 the DICK'S Business earned a 12.6% segment margin on $3.85 billion of sales while Foot Locker lost $31.9 million on $1.74 billion, and cumulative cleanup charges of $515.8 million already equal about 20.6% of the $2.5 billion purchase consideration. After the 30.68% August 25 selloff the shares trade at 11.8 times the guided GAAP midpoint. Rating Watch: the core franchise is intact, but Foot Locker's negative returns and rising all-in investment leave no margin of safety at $135.09.
39/100
73Buffett
Service Corporation International: Cemetery Gross Profit Now Exceeds Funeral, but a 6.5% Owner-Earnings Yield Sits Only 1.8 Points Above Treasuries
Service Corporation International is North America's largest funeral-and-cemetery operator, running about 1,495 funeral homes and 505 cemeteries and carrying a $17.62 billion preneed backlog funded through trusts and insurance. Cemetery gross profit has already overtaken funeral, offsetting comparable funeral volume that fell 1.4% in Q2 2026 while a 64.8% cremation rate keeps pressing the average ticket. Rating Hold: at $83.36 the shares trade at 19.85 times guided EPS with a 6.5% owner-earnings yield only 1.8 points above Treasuries, and the ideal buy zone is $60 to $65.
37/100
65Buffett
Reliance: Q2's 5.3-Point Industry Beat Shrinks to 0.1 Point Without the Border Wall, and $387.59 Already Sits Inside the Base-Case Band
Reliance is North America's largest metals-service-center network, buying metal from mills, carrying thousands of grades in inventory, processing it to customer specification and delivering small lots fast, so it earns processing and distribution spreads rather than steel prices. Q2 2026 tons rose 10.8% against 5.5% for the MSCI industry benchmark, but the Department of Homeland Security border-wall project supplied 5.2 of those points, leaving underlying growth of about 5.6% and an industry beat of one-tenth of a point. Rating Hold: at $387.59 the shares sit inside the $350 to $420 base band and 19% to 27% above the conservative value, with the ideal buy zone at $230 to $240 and no margin of safety today.
43/100
78Buffett
NEXT plc: 23.9% International Growth, a £16.9 Million Platform, and 19.2 Times Earnings
NEXT plc is a UK omnichannel fashion and home retailer whose profit now runs through four engines: UK online, which earned £524 million of statutory pre-tax profit in the year to 2026-01-31 against £226 million from stores; international online, up 23.9% in the 26 weeks to 2026-08-01; NEXT Finance, contributing £195 million; and a portfolio of distressed brands bought cheaply. Management raised guidance for the year to January 2027 to £1.243 billion, though £10 million of the £25 million upgrade came from investments rather than retail, and Total Platform services earned only £16.9 million. Rating Hold: the international re-rating is real, but £155.75 is 19.2 times guided earnings and a 3.8% owner-cash yield against a 5.15% gilt, leaving no margin of safety above the £100–105 ideal buy range.
44/100
Metso: A 56% Aftermarket Mix, an 18.0% Minerals Margin, and 30 Times Earnings
Metso is a Finnish supplier of mineral-processing and aggregates equipment whose economics rest on the aftermarket: wear parts, mill linings, screening media and service were 56% of first-half 2026 group sales and 65% of Minerals sales. First-half orders rose 12% to EUR 3.017 billion and the backlog reached EUR 3.662 billion, up 13%, while the Minerals adjusted EBITA margin hit 18.0% against 16.4% for the group; operating cash flow nonetheless fell to EUR 131 million from EUR 283 million as working capital absorbed EUR 186 million. Rating Hold: the installed-base quality is real, but at EUR 18.19 the shares carry roughly 30 times trailing earnings and a 3.0% free-cash-flow yield, leaving no margin of safety until the price approaches the EUR 10.0 to 11.2 ideal buy range.
41/100
45Buffett
GoerTek: Stand-Alone Q2 Grew 0.67%, FY2025's Profit Jump Was Largely an Accounting Gain, and CNY 23.51 Already Pays the Base Case
GoerTek is a Chinese acoustic and sensing component supplier that also assembles TWS earbuds and VR/XR smart hardware at very large scale, with roughly four-fifths of revenue sitting in low-margin assembly and the best economics concentrated in precision components. Stand-alone Q2 2026 revenue grew only 0.67% once the first quarter is subtracted from the half year, and FY2025's 47.85% profit jump rested on a CNY 2.14 billion one-off gain from deconsolidating GoerTek Optical, leaving adjusted profit down 38.17%. Rating Hold: at CNY 23.51 the shares already sit on the CNY 24.8 base-case value and 36% above the CNY 17.3 conservative estimate, with no margin of safety ahead of the CNY 13.0 to 13.8 ideal buy range.
39/100
76Buffett
Bunzl: 0.4% Underlying Growth, 237 Acquisitions, and 15.6 Times Earnings
Bunzl is a global outsourced-procurement distributor of not-for-resale consumables, using local service, own brands and bolt-on acquisitions to consolidate fragmented supply chains. FY2025 underlying revenue grew only 0.4% while a botched North American operating-model change cut regional margin from 7.9% to 7.0%, leaving 237 acquisitions since 2004 to carry the growth algorithm. Rating Hold: cash quality and the North America repair are credible, but at 15.6 times adjusted earnings there is no discount to the conservative value.
38/100
40Buffett
Equinor: Q2 Profit of USD 11.48bn Leaves USD 3.44bn After Tax, and NOK 386.40 Already Pays the Base Case
Equinor is Norway's 67% state-controlled integrated energy company, built on Norwegian Continental Shelf oil, European pipeline gas, international upstream and a large trading arm, with power still immaterial to group profit. Second-quarter 2026 adjusted operating income of USD 11.48 billion left USD 3.44 billion after tax because qualifying Norwegian petroleum income carries a 78% marginal rate, and the quarter's realised USD 97.9 a barrel and USD 15.8 per MMBtu sat far above the USD 65 and USD 9 deck management uses for capital allocation. Rating Hold: at NOK 386.40 the shares already trade on the NOK 390 base-case value and 25% above the NOK 308 conservative estimate, leaving no margin of safety ahead of the NOK 230 to 245 ideal buy range.
47/100
74Buffett
Alfa Laval: A 35% Order Surge, a 2% Profit Increase, and 29 Times Earnings
Alfa Laval is a Swedish process-equipment maker built on three technologies, heat transfer, centrifugal separation and fluid handling, with 30.4% of 2025 sales coming from service on an installed base spanning energy, food, pharma and marine markets. Second-quarter 2026 order intake jumped 35% to SEK 22.235 billion and the order book reached SEK 53.5 billion, yet adjusted EBITA rose only 2.3% and its margin fell to 17.0% from 17.8%, as negative mix subtracted SEK 313 million and higher costs another SEK 449 million from the earnings bridge. Rating Hold: the order boom is real and spans all three divisions, but at SEK 577.20 the shares carry roughly 29.1 times trailing earnings and a 2.7% free-cash-flow yield, leaving no margin of safety until the price approaches the SEK 360-400 ideal buy range.
44/100
71Buffett
Lamar Advertising: A 6.1% Organic Quarter and 2.9x Leverage, but 17.2x AFFO Leaves No Margin of Safety
Lamar Advertising is an outdoor-advertising REIT that owns about 159,300 billboard displays across the United States and monetizes scarce permitted locations rather than producing creative work, with roughly 77% to 79% of revenue coming from local advertisers. Second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 6.5% to $616.7 million while acquisition-adjusted revenue rose 6.1%, so the acceleration was organic rather than bought; adjusted EBITDA margin reached a company-record 49.2%, management raised 2026 AFFO guidance to $8.75 to $8.90 a share, and net leverage of 2.9x sits well below the stated 3.5 to 4.0x target. Rating Hold: at $151.98 the shares trade at about 17.2x guided AFFO for a 5.81% yield against a 4.66% ten-year Treasury, inside the $145 to $165 acceptable-hold band but far above the $95 to $100 ideal buy range, so no conservative margin of safety exists.
47/100
68Buffett
Sunny Optical: Other Products Supply a Third of Gross Profit on 18.4% of Revenue, but Handset Margin at 12.3% Leaves No Safety Margin at HKD 62.60
Sunny Optical is a precision-optics manufacturer that ranks first globally in handset lens sets, camera modules and vehicle lens sets, and has spent a decade moving the same process engineering into automotive optics, XR and robotics. In H1 2026 the Other segment grew 88.5% at a 34.4% gross margin, supplying 32.6% of group gross profit on 18.4% of revenue, while handsets gave 60% of revenue for only 37.8% of gross profit as segment margin fell to 12.3%; FY2025's reported 71.9% profit jump also contained a roughly RMB 919 million share-swap gain, leaving about 37.8% underlying growth. Rating Watch: at HKD 62.60 the shares sit below the HKD 71-76 base fair value but well above the HKD 48-52 conservative case, so no margin of safety exists until the HKD 38-40 ideal buy zone.
42/100
67Buffett
Yutong Bus: A 29.62% Overseas Gross Margin Against 19.09% at Home Carried H1 Core Profit Up 15.83%, but 7m+ Share Fell to 28.69% and CNY 30.40 Sits Above the CNY 27 Conservative Value
Yutong Bus is China's largest large-and-medium bus manufacturer, selling 49,518 buses in FY2025 through a mature domestic replacement cycle and a fast-growing export book that earns roughly 2.6 times the domestic revenue per vehicle at a 29.62% gross margin against 19.09% at home. FY2025 revenue rose 11.31% to CNY 41.426 billion and attributable profit 34.94% to CNY 5.554 billion, but H1 2026 headline profit fell 3.52% while ex-non-recurring profit rose 15.83%, and matched 7m+ market share dropped to 28.69% from a derived 34.4% a year earlier. Rating Hold: at CNY 30.40 the stock trades at about 12.3 times trailing earnings with an 8.22% retrospective dividend yield, yet sits roughly 12.5% above the CNY 27 conservative value, so the durability of the export margin is the whole thesis.
41/100
69Buffett
Transsion Holdings: H1 Gross Margin Rebounded to 22.6% on Price Rises and Cheap Inventory, but Operating Cash Flow of Negative CNY 5.861 Billion Leaves CNY 57.82 Above the CNY 44-47 Conservative Value
Transsion Holdings is an emerging-market handset specialist that sells TECNO, Infinix and itel through roughly 3,500 distributors and 2,500 service outlets, shipping 169.0 million handsets in 2025 for third place globally by units but only eighth by handset revenue. FY2025 revenue fell 4.55% while attributable profit dropped 53.49% to CNY 2.581 billion as memory rose to 28.0% of inventory cost; H1 2026 then rebounded 21.85% and 46.22% with gross margin back at 22.6%, but management credits older cheap inventory, stock doubled to CNY 18.935 billion and operating cash flow swung to negative CNY 5.861 billion. Rating Hold: normalized owner earnings of roughly CNY 2.2 billion put the equity near 30 times, and at CNY 57.82 the stock sits 23% above the CNY 44-47 conservative value, so the next leg is a cash-and-volume test rather than an earnings-growth test.
44/100
66Buffett
Sterling Infrastructure: A 49% Organic Quarter, a 50% Drawdown, and Still 25 Times 2026 Earnings
Sterling Infrastructure is a U.S. infrastructure contractor that spent a decade escaping low-bid highway work, cutting that exposure from roughly 79% of revenue in 2016 to 9% in 2025 while rebuilding around data-center site development and, since the CEC acquisition, mission-critical electrical construction. Second-quarter 2026 revenue rose 90% to USD 1.168 billion, yet subtracting USD 250.8 million of acquired revenue still leaves roughly 49.3% legacy organic growth, and management raised 2026 guidance to USD 4.00–4.15 billion of revenue and USD 19.70–20.30 of adjusted EPS. Rating Hold: the margin transformation is real and predates AI, but at USD 497.41, already 50% below the June peak, the shares still carry roughly 25 times 2026 adjusted earnings and sit far above the USD 315–335 range where a genuine margin of safety would begin.
38/100
70Buffett
AptarGroup: Pharma Carries the Profit, the Price Leaves No Cushion
AptarGroup supplies regulated drug-delivery components and consumer dispensing systems, and the split defines the equity: Pharma was 46% of 2025 sales but 69% of reportable-segment adjusted EBITDA. Q2 2026 makes the argument concrete. Standard Pharma core sales grew just 1% while management's figure excluding emergency-medicine destocking was about 8%, and Pharma adjusted EBITDA margin fell 180 basis points to 33.6%; Emergent's 16% first-half naloxone decline suggests part of the lost revenue has re-based structurally, so this report normalizes Pharma core growth at 5% to 6% rather than capitalizing 8%. Rating Hold: at $134.72 a sum-of-the-parts implies about 13.7 times Pharma EBITDA while the conservative case is worth roughly $134, leaving no margin of safety above the $100 to $107 ideal buy zone.
31/100
70Buffett
SAIC: Margins and Buybacks Lift Owner Earnings to an 8.7% Yield, but a 1.0x Trailing Book-to-Bill Leaves $127.28 Above Conservative Value
Science Applications International Corporation is a U.S. federal mission and IT integrator that drew 97% of Q1 FY2027 revenue from the government, with cost-reimbursement work at 62% of the mix and Defense and Intelligence at $1.466 billion of the $1.906 billion quarter. The economics have inverted: February 2026 cut FY2027 revenue guidance to $7.0–7.2 billion after Army CASTLE-NET and Air Force Cloud One were lost, yet adjusted EBITDA guidance rose to $720–730 million and Q1 margin reached 11.6% against 8.4% a year earlier, while trailing book-to-bill sat at exactly 1.0 and only $3.736 billion of the $22.860 billion backlog was funded. Rating Hold: normalized owner earnings near $470 million yield 8.7% on a $5.38 billion market capitalization, but $127.28 sits 11–18% above the $108–115 conservative value, so a good cash yield is not a margin of safety.
46/100
46Buffett
Nexans: A Subsea Margin Story the Price Has Largely Absorbed
Nexans is a French electrification cable maker whose PWR-Transmission arm builds and installs the high-voltage submarine systems behind interconnectors and offshore wind, the scarce franchise carrying the investment case. Adjusted EBITDA rose from EUR 325 million in 2018 to EUR 728 million in 2025 while ROCE more than doubled to 21.3%, and H1 2026 Transmission EBITDA grew 21.2% on organically flat sales, but the raised FY2026 guidance of EUR 770 to 840 million is substantially acquired scope from Republic Wire rather than organic acceleration. Rating Hold: at EUR 140.80 the stock sits inside the EUR 130 to 170 acceptable-hold zone but far above the EUR 85 to 91 ideal buy range, with 15.6% of Transmission backlog tied to the delayed Great Sea Interconnector.