Insights

SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026. The largest IPO on record packs a $1.76 trillion valuation, a 4.25% float, and a 94 times price-to-sales multiple into a single stock. This piece works through day one, three months, and one year along four lines (the offering structure, index inclusion, valuation tension, and historical precedent), with the supply cadence as the dominant variable: the lockup staircase starts in August, and the float widens roughly nine and a half times over within half a year. Our call is that the stock closes above the offer price with about a 90% probability on day one, 65% at three months, and 40% at one year. Day one (6/12) closed at $160.95, up 19.2%, landing in the base case; the three-month and one-year reads remain open.