Insights
In-depth studies built around one concrete question — M&A scenarios, industry structure, policy impact — one piece per topic, cross-checked across sources. 3 articles.
NVIDIA invests in OpenAI, OpenAI signs hundreds of billions of dollars in compute purchases from Microsoft, Oracle, and CoreWeave, and those buyers turn around and buy NVIDIA chips — bulls call this loop a virtuous circle, bears compare it to Cisco in 2000. After checking every deal against primary documents, our verdict: the cash genuinely moves and SEC disclosure reaches the contract level, so the Ponzi label fails; but NVIDIA's top three customers already account for 54% of a single quarter's revenue, and the credit risk of vendor financing is concentrating in the chain's anchor. We put the subjective odds of a contract-level crack among the loop's core parties before the end of 2027 at roughly 65% — and since June the market has already begun pricing the two ends of the loop apart.
In early June, Micron fell hard from its all-time high, dropping as much as 13.3% intraday in a single session and pushing the question "has the AI memory supercycle topped?" to center stage. This piece uses our 71 semiconductor Baillie Ten-Question scorecards to make a contrarian call: the demand supercycle is real, but after Micron and Hynix rose roughly tenfold and crossed a trillion in market cap, the stocks have been priced to perfection. None of the 71 scores above 3 on either the expectations-in-the-share-price question or the what-the-market-is-missing question. The verdict: this is valuation reverting to cyclical fragility, not demand collapsing, and the most dangerous trade is buying the dip. We put the subjective odds of Micron drawing down at least 25% from its June 3 high within 12 months at roughly 60%.
Three years into the AI rally, leadership has rotated from compute chips to power, to memory, and now toward application software, and the question most people get stuck on is simply "where are we now." This piece reconstructs the rotation logic from verifiable data, the annual leaders, the capex trajectory, and the bottleneck of the moment. Money follows the tightest chokepoint in the supply chain, and whoever holds the chokepoint leads. Our read, June 2026 sits in the overlap between the late-middle of the infrastructure rally and the early innings of applications taking the baton. Memory and power are still the tightest bottlenecks, software applications are up just 17.6% over three years, and the application rally has not really begun.