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48/100
23Buffett
Micron Technology Re-coverage: From Memory Cycle to Contracted AI-Memory Oligopoly?
Micron is the only U.S.-listed pure-play memory producer, selling DRAM and NAND that made up 76% and 24% of FQ3 FY2026 revenue. Revenue reached $41.46 billion at an 84.6% GAAP gross margin, but roughly 85% to 90% of the incremental revenue came from pricing and mix rather than bit shipments, while 16 take-or-pay Strategic Customer Agreements carrying about $100 billion of minimum contracted revenue have genuinely raised the margin floor. Rating Hold: contracted AI-memory economics justify a base value band of $780 to $920, but at $868.52 the price already discounts that base case and leaves no conservative margin of safety.
55/100
92Buffett
ASML Holding N.V.: A €43–45bn Guidance Reset, 38x Forward Earnings, and No Conservative Margin of Safety
ASML Holding N.V. is the Dutch supplier of the only commercial EUV lithography platform, generating €32.67 billion of 2025 revenue alongside an installed-base service and field-option business that reached €8.19 billion. FY2026 guidance moved from €36–40 billion in April to €43–45 billion after Q2, lifting estimated FY2026 EPS toward €39–40 and cutting the forward multiple to roughly 38x, while quarterly bookings disclosure has ended. Rating Hold: the earnings reset defends the current quote, but a conservative value band of €996–1,116 leaves no margin of safety.
46/100
87Buffett
KONE Oyj: 1.8 Million Units of Recurring Service, and a EUR 29.4bn Bet on Scale
KONE Oyj is the Finnish elevator maker whose economics now rest on a 1.8-million-unit maintenance base, with Service and Modernization already about 64% of 2025 sales. The pending EUR 29.4bn TK Elevator acquisition would add EUR 1.365bn of existing adjusted EBIT and push the maintenance base toward 3.2 million units, but it also swaps EUR 0.7bn of net cash for roughly EUR 13.5bn of illustrative net debt, dilutes existing owners 33.8% on an issued-share basis, and faces a 12-18 month antitrust review that Schindler intends to challenge. Rating Hold: EUR 51.40 sits above the roughly EUR 47 conservative fair value, so the quality is real but the margin of safety is not.
46/100
77Buffett
ABB Ltd: 58% Electrification Order Growth, and a 19.5x EBITDA Test of Capital Discipline
ABB Ltd is a global electrification and automation supplier whose continuing operations generated CHF 26.8 billion of 2025 revenue at a 19.0% operational EBITA margin. Electrification orders grew 58% comparably in Q2 2026 on triple-digit data-centre demand and a 1.39x book-to-bill, yet the shares trade near 36.3x trailing earnings while ABB sells Robotics to SoftBank and pays 19.5x pre-synergy EBITDA for Rotork. Rating Hold: a materially better company at a price that leaves no conservative margin of safety.
36/100
Chow Tai Seng: FY2025 Revenue Fell 36.54% While Profit Rose 9.22%, But at CNY 12.93 the Shares Sit 33-49% Above the CNY 8.7-9.7 Conservative Value
Chow Tai Seng is a franchise-led Chinese jewellery brand that monetises gold sales, brand-usage fees, self-operated retail and e-commerce across 4,193 terminal stores, of which 3,803 are franchised. FY2025 revenue fell 36.54% to CNY 8.815bn while attributable profit rose 9.22% to CNY 1.103bn, because the collapse of low-margin franchise gold wholesale left a richer mix of brand-usage fees of CNY 788m, direct retail and e-commerce, lifting gross margin to 31.35% and to 39.43% in Q1 2026. Rating Hold: the royalty-like fee stream and a 7.0% indicated yield are real, but five-year operating cash flow of only 64% of net income and CNY 5.364bn of inventory leave CNY 12.93 sitting 33-49% above the CNY 8.7-9.7 conservative value, with no margin of safety.
33/100
83Buffett
Lao Feng Xiang: 499 Franchise Closures and a 10.6% Jewellery Gross Margin, While the Shares at CNY 34.87 Sit 9% Above the CNY 31.9 Conservative Value
Lao Feng Xiang is a 178-year-old Chinese gold-jewellery brand monetised mainly through a nationwide franchise-wholesale network of 5,355 outlets, of which only 213 are directly operated. Revenue fell 7.0% to CNY 52.82bn in 2025 and attributable profit to CNY 1.75bn as China's jewellery tonnage collapsed 31.6% and households shifted to bars and coins, while the network shed 499 franchise outlets and jewellery gross margin stayed near 10.6% against Chow Tai Fook's 32.3% and Laopu's 37.6%. Rating Hold: the balance sheet, a 4.7% dividend and a 10.8 times trailing multiple already discount much of the problem, but at CNY 34.87 the price sits 9% above the CNY 31.9 conservative value, leaving no margin of safety.
39/100
74Buffett
Honeywell Technologies: A Genuine Automation Franchise, Already Priced for Successful Execution
Honeywell Technologies is the automation company left after Aerospace was distributed on June 29, 2026 and the shares were reverse-split one for two: roughly USD 20 billion of building, process and industrial control revenue, with Building Automation now the largest earnings engine. Standalone Q2 orders rose 16% and management lifted 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to USD 8.05-8.35, yet at USD 246.21 the shares trade on 30 times that midpoint and about 39 times guided free cash flow, against roughly USD 24.8 billion of net debt. Rating Hold: the automation franchise is real, and the price already pays for execution the new company has not yet reported.
52/100
35Buffett
Marvell Technology: A Real AI Franchise, but the Price Already Pays for Fiscal 2029
Marvell Technology designs custom AI silicon and high-speed data-center connectivity, with data center already at 75.8% of fiscal Q1 2027 revenue. Management raised the fiscal 2028 outlook to about USD 16.5 billion eight days after the prior in-house report, yet at USD 218.72 the shares sit about 8% above this report's USD 203 base-case present value, against USD 133 in the conservative case. Rating Hold: the business has earned a higher valuation framework, and the price has already taken most of it.
44/100
55Buffett
adidas AG: Record Revenue, Record Doubt, and the Economics of a World Cup
adidas AG is the world's number-two athletic footwear and apparel brand, selling product design and sports marketing through a wholesale-plus-DTC network that produced EUR 24.81bn of 2025 revenue. Second-quarter 2026 delivered record currency-neutral growth of 14% and a 52.5% gross margin, yet operating profit of EUR 574m missed consensus by EUR 49m as marketing and point-of-sale expense rose EUR 212m to EUR 924m, and management raised revenue guidance while leaving full-year EBIT at about EUR 2.3bn. Rating Hold: the demand recovery is proven, but at EUR 164.05 the price sits 13% to 26% above the EUR 130 to EUR 145 conservative value and the ideal buy zone is EUR 105 to EUR 115.
53/100
82Buffett
Tencent Holdings: A 12.8% Re-Rating on an Unconfirmed WeChat Agent, While Q1 Disclosed RMB8.8 Billion of AI Drag
Tencent monetizes Weixin/WeChat, games, advertising, payments and cloud while holding RMB912 billion of disclosed investments before discounts. Q1 2026 domestic games slowed to 6% growth while Marketing Services held 20%, and new AI products cut non-IFRS operating profit by about RMB8.8 billion in the quarter. Rating Hold: at HK$478.80 the shares sit above the HK$451 conservative sum-of-the-parts value, leaving no margin of safety three days before Q2 results.
35/100
PUMA SE: A Fixable Brand, but the Price Already Pays for Part of the Fix
PUMA SE is the world's number-three athletic footwear and apparel brand, selling through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels, with 2025 continuing-operations sales of EUR 7.30bn and a EUR 357.2m reported operating loss. Second-quarter 2026 showed a genuine reset, with inventory down 15.3%, gross margin up 180 basis points to 48.0% and EUR 328.8m of free cash flow, yet currency-adjusted sales still fell 9.4% while adidas grew 14% in the same quarter and the same categories. Rating Hold: the brand is probably fixable, but at EUR 27.11 the price already sits two-thirds of the way from the EUR 18.3 conservative value to the EUR 31.1 base value, and the ideal buy zone is EUR 14.0 to EUR 14.5.
44/100
61Buffett
MYR Group: A Record 20.1% Organic Quarter and a 3.16 Billion Backlog, Already Priced at 32 Times Trailing Earnings
MYR Group is a North American specialty electrical contractor that builds utility transmission and distribution networks alongside commercial and industrial electrical systems for data centers, transport and manufacturing, carrying a record USD 3.16 billion backlog at June 2026. Second-quarter revenue rose 20.1% to USD 1.08 billion entirely organically, because the USD 328 million Valley and Comet acquisition closed on July 1, one day after quarter-end, yet 0.9 percentage points of the consolidated gross margin came from favorable project-estimate revisions and 87.7% of the fast-growing C&I segment runs on fixed-price contracts. Rating Hold: the post-2024 execution recovery is genuine, but at USD 337.42 the shares already carry roughly 32 times trailing earnings and sit 35% to 53% above the conservative fair-value range, which leaves no margin of safety.
52/100
Amer Sports: The Brand Transformation Is Real, but Has the Price Already Bought All of It?
Amer Sports owns Arc’teryx, Salomon and Wilson, and has converted a leveraged sporting-goods conglomerate into a premium, increasingly direct-to-consumer softgoods group whose economics are set by two of its three segments. First-quarter 2026 revenue grew 32% with a 60.0% adjusted gross margin, but Greater China is now 33.1% of sales and full-year guidance implies second-half growth slowing to roughly 14% to 18%. Rating Hold: the transformation is real, yet at 30.6 times guided 2026 adjusted earnings the price already sits above the report's US$28.7 to US$33.1 conservative value and leaves no margin of safety.
42/100
SMIC: Strategic Scarcity Is Proven, but Has the Capital Cycle Started Paying Its Way?
SMIC is China's largest pure-play foundry, selling wafer manufacturing capacity across mature and advanced-for-China nodes rather than designing chips of its own. Q1 2026 revenue was US$2.505bn at 93.1% utilization and a 20.1% gross margin, and Q2 revenue is guided up 14 to 16% sequentially, yet US$8.40bn of capex against US$3.19bn of operating cash flow left conventional free cash flow negative for a fifth straight year. Rating Hold: at HK$66.90 the shares sit inside the HK$63 to 85 acceptable-hold band but about 23% above the HK$54 conservative value, leaving no margin of safety before the August 13 Q2 print.
43/100
75Buffett
Li Ning Company: 11 Times Trailing Earnings and Almost RMB20 Billion of Net Cash, Against a Q2 2026 Sell-Through Reversal
Li Ning monetises a single national sportswear brand through franchised distributors, directly operated stores and e-commerce, with FY2025 revenue of RMB29.6 billion. Revenue grew 3.2% but attributable profit fell 2.6%, return on equity has slid from 26.9% in 2021 to 10.9%, and Q2 2026 retail sell-through reversed from first-quarter growth into a low-single-digit decline. Rating Hold: almost RMB20 billion of cash and deposits and about 11 times trailing earnings protect the downside, yet at HK$14.54 the shares sit above the roughly HK$11.8 conservative value with no margin of safety.
47/100
95Buffett
Paycom Software: Has Automation Repaired the Growth Engine, and Is That Already Priced?
Paycom sells single-database payroll and HCM software whose automation products shift work from payroll administrators to employees, improving the client outcome while removing billable activity. Retention rose from 90% to 91% and recurring revenue grew 11% in the second quarter of 2026, but the company still withholds the seat, price and attach data needed to prove that automation has restored durable double-digit growth. Rating Hold: a 23.55% one-day re-rating to 215.97 USD lifted the price into the 195 to 245 USD acceptable-hold zone, leaving no margin of safety against conservative intrinsic value of 137 to 168 USD.
37/100
Pfizer Inc.: A 6.6% Yield Costing 108% of Free Cash Flow, $17-18 Billion of Revenue Facing the Late-Decade Cliff, and No Margin of Safety at $26.20
Pfizer is a global biopharmaceutical group funding oncology, vaccines and specialty medicines from a large portfolio of patented products. Two consecutive 2026 beats and an August guidance raise show the commercial engine working, but roughly 17-18 billion of Pfizer-recognised annual revenue faces loss of exclusivity across the second half of the decade, and the 1.72 dividend already absorbs 108% of conventional free cash flow. Rating Hold: a 6.6% yield at 9.0 times guided adjusted earnings pays holders to wait, yet at 26.20 the shares sit inside the 25-32 fair range with no margin of safety.
48/100
71Buffett
IES Holdings: Backlog Nearly Doubled to $4.5 Billion While 38% Sits Outside Enforceable RPO, and at $768.43 the Shares Run 79% to 102% Above Conservative Fair Value
IES Holdings is a decentralized electrical contractor and fabricator whose data-center cabling, power-distribution and engineered-enclosure work now drives most incremental growth. Fiscal third-quarter revenue rose 39.6% to $1.243 billion with roughly 85% of the dollar increase organic, and backlog climbed to about $4.5 billion — but $1.70 billion of that, some 38%, lies outside enforceable remaining performance obligations, and the Commercial & Industrial segment's 30.5% June-quarter gross margin is a poor number to capitalize indefinitely. Rating Watch: the operating improvement is real, yet at $768.43 the shares sit 79% to 102% above the $380-430 conservative fair-value range and near 40 times normalized owner earnings, leaving no margin of safety.
46/100
55Buffett
Qualcomm Incorporated: Mispricing, Value Trap, or Transition Discount?
Qualcomm runs two engines on one balance sheet: QCT sells handset, automotive, IoT and now data-centre silicon, while QTL collects royalties on cellular patents attached to the licensed device rather than to the presence of a Qualcomm chip. Fiscal third-quarter revenue fell 4% to 9.95 billion USD as handset revenue dropped 20%, and Apple product revenue of roughly 7.5 billion USD in fiscal 2026 is expected below 2 billion USD in fiscal 2027, while only about 1 billion USD of the 5 billion USD fiscal 2027 data-centre target has been publicly linked to disclosed customer programmes. Rating Hold: the fall from 238.16 to 160.39 USD is 92% multiple compression rather than an earnings collapse, but the conservative fair-value range of 145 to 165 USD sits at the market price, so a holder is paid to wait while a new buyer receives no margin of safety.
40/100
38Buffett
RTX Corporation: A Record Backlog and a Documented GTF Recovery, Already Paid For by a 26% Re-Rating
RTX runs three different economic machines on one balance sheet: Collins Aerospace sells aircraft systems into a broad installed base, Pratt & Whitney accepts thin original-equipment economics to earn decades of engine aftermarket, and Raytheon sells missiles and air defense into government procurement. Second-quarter 2026 sales of 24.708 billion USD rose 16% organically, backlog reached a record 289 billion USD, PW1100 aircraft-on-ground levels fell 25% year to date, and management raised full-year guidance on sales, organic growth, adjusted EPS and the lower bound of free cash flow. Rating Hold: the operating recovery is now documented, but the shares rose 26.1% since May against a 5.5% rise in the adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, leaving 31.1 times forward earnings, a free-cash-flow yield below 3% and no margin of safety against the 150 to 165 USD conservative case.
55/100
92Buffett
ANTA Sports: Other Brands Grew 59.2% While the Core Brand Managed 3.7%, and at HKD 74.50 the Shares Already Sit Above the HKD 68 Conservative Sum-of-the-Parts
ANTA is two assets on one share certificate: a controlled multi-brand sportswear group that earned RMB 80.22 billion of FY2025 revenue, and a 37.77% equity-accounted stake in New York-listed Amer Sports worth far more in the market than on the balance sheet. The mix has shifted underneath the headline: the ANTA core brand grew 3.7% and FILA 6.9% in FY2025 while the other-brand group grew 59.2% to 21.2% of revenue, and second-quarter 2026 retail sales repeated the pattern with low-single-digit core growth against 25 to 30% elsewhere. Rating Hold: cash conversion of 1.49 times over five years and RMB 31.7 billion of net cash are genuine, but the Puma stake was contracted 62% above the unaffected price and at HKD 74.50 the shares sit above the HKD 68 conservative sum-of-the-parts, leaving no margin of safety.
35/100
67Buffett
SCHOTT Pharma: A GLP-1 Boom Priced by the Dose, Not the Drug, and a Capacity Bill That Has Yet to Prove Its Return
SCHOTT Pharma supplies the glass and polymer syringes, cartridges, vials and ampoules that hold injectable medicines, earning a manufacturing price per container rather than a share of the price of the drug inside it. That distinction explains the gap the market misread: management puts injectable-drug market growth at 9 to 10% in 2025 against 1 to 2% for primary packaging, and although high-value sterile formats reached 57% of fiscal 2025 revenue and July guidance was lifted to 5 to 6% growth and a 27 to 28% EBITDA margin, polymer-syringe underutilisation, EUR 140 to 160 million of annual capital expenditure and SCHOTT AG's 77% control keep free cash flow and minority influence thin. Rating Hold: the recovery is credible and the balance sheet is sound, but at 22.15 EUR the shares yield under 2% on consensus free cash flow and sit above the 16 to 18 EUR ideal buy zone.
38/100
57Buffett
Samsung Electronics: Device Solutions Supplied 99.7% of Second-Quarter Operating Profit, and at 230,500 Won the Shares Already Trade Above the 185,000 Won Conservative Value
Samsung Electronics is a diversified electronics group selling phones, televisions, appliances, OLED panels, networks equipment and automotive electronics, yet its present earnings come almost entirely from memory semiconductors. Second-quarter 2026 operating profit reached KRW 89.5 trillion on KRW 171.5 trillion of revenue, of which Device Solutions supplied 99.7% while Device eXperience lost KRW 0.8 trillion; HBM4 passed Nvidia qualification, but independent estimates still leave Samsung near 28% of 2026 HBM bit output against roughly 50% for SK hynix. Rating Hold: at the KRW 230,500 close the shares sit inside the KRW 205,000-275,000 acceptable-hold band but above the KRW 185,000 conservative value, leaving no margin of safety.
48/100
Danaher: Orders and Peers Make the Bioprocessing Recovery Underwritable, but 3-4% Core Growth at 23 Times Earnings Leaves No Margin of Safety
Danaher sells recurring bioprocessing, laboratory and diagnostic workflows through specialised operating companies run on the Danaher Business System, with Cytiva consumables, Cepheid cartridges and Beckman reagents supplying most of the profit pool. Second-quarter core growth was 3.0% while more than 100 million USD of chromatography-resin shipments moved into 2027, and goodwill and intangibles reached 74.5% of assets after the 9.8 billion USD Masimo purchase, against acquisition-inclusive ROIC near 6 to 7%. Rating Hold: peer consumables data make the bioprocessing recovery underwritable, but at 23.4 times guided adjusted EPS the price already pays for a conversion Danaher cannot schedule.