Отрасли
Integrated Oil & Gas
Вся аналитика по отрасли Integrated Oil & Gas — 17 материалов.
36/100
Eni: One-Third of Pro Forma EBIT Now Sits Outside the Consolidated Perimeter, and EUR 23 Already Pays for Both the Satellite Rerating and USD 104 Brent
Eni is Italy's state-influenced integrated energy major, running exploration-led upstream growth alongside gas and LNG trading, refining and chemicals, and the partly sold transition businesses Enilive and Plenitude. Its distinguishing feature is the satellite model: in H1 2026, EUR 2.977bn of EUR 8.911bn pro forma adjusted EBIT, or 33%, came from JVs and associates outside the consolidated perimeter, while Q2 adjusted net profit doubling to EUR 2.333bn rested on Brent at USD 104.52/bbl against a USD 70 through-cycle deck. A through-cycle sum-of-the-parts gives about EUR 24.9 per share against the EUR 23.075 close, with a conservative case near EUR 19.1. Rating Hold: a strong operator at a fair-to-full cyclical price, worth owning for the distribution but offering a new buyer no margin of safety.
27/100
BP p.l.c.: $22.3bn of Headline Net Debt Sits Inside a $55bn Obligation Stack, and £5.397 Leaves No Conservative Margin of Safety
BP is an integrated oil-and-gas major whose upstream, refining, marketing and one of the industry’s largest supply-and-trading books generate the cash now funding a balance-sheet repair and an aggressive portfolio simplification. The gap between appearance and economics is the whole case: Q2 2026 underlying replacement-cost profit of $5.7bn and $10.9bn of operating cash flow cut headline net debt to $22.3bn, but hybrids, leases and residual Gulf settlement liabilities push the economically relevant obligation stack toward roughly $55bn, while buybacks have been suspended since February 2026 and the 30–40% operating-cash-flow distribution rule has been retired. Rating Hold: £5.397 sits inside the £5.20–£6.80 acceptable-hold band but roughly 19% above the £4.55 conservative fair value, so an existing position is defensible while new money should wait for £3.55–£3.65.
35/100
41Buffett
Aker BP ASA: The 2028 Cash Inflection Is Sanctioned and Tax-Shielded, but NOK 356 Leaves No Conservative Margin of Safety
Aker BP is a Norwegian-shelf pure-play exploration and production company with no refining, fuel retail, trading or renewable earnings to cushion it, operating the Alvheim, Eiga, Skarv, Valhall and Ula hubs alongside a Johan Sverdrup interest that alone supplied 213.5 of its 383.6 thousand boe/d in Q2 2026. The equity case rests on investment rather than revenue: on the company-published consensus, investment cash flow falls from USD 7.323bn in 2026 to USD 2.564bn in 2028, lifting owner free cash flow after cash interest from USD 1.365bn to USD 3.173bn even as operating cash flow declines, and Norway’s 78% marginal petroleum tax means the headline USD 12.5-13.0bn Yggdrasil and USD 7.3-7.6bn Valhall PWP-Fenris estimates cost shareholders far less than they appear to. Rating Hold: NOK 356 sits below the NOK 385-425 base fair value but above the NOK 300-325 conservative value, the 6.94% indicated dividend is not covered by 2026 owner cash flow, and the ideal buy range is NOK 240-260.
40/100
32Buffett
TotalEnergies: USD 27.5bn of Owner Earnings, 33.4 GW of Power, and No Obvious Margin of Safety at EUR 77.61
TotalEnergies is the Paris-listed integrated energy major that runs a low-cost hydrocarbon engine alongside a deliberately scaled electricity business, reporting its accounts in USD while the share and dividend are set in EUR. Group CFFO was USD 27.8 billion in 2025, and owner earnings near USD 27.5 billion put the shares on about 7.3 times, yet Integrated Power reached 33.4 GW of net installed capacity by Q2 2026 while earning about 10% ROACE in 2024 against a 12% target. Rating Hold: at EUR 77.61, close to the EUR 81.34 52-week high with Brent near USD 95, the shares sit inside the EUR 72 to 82 base-case value and 19 to 29% above the EUR 60 to 65 conservative case, well clear of the EUR 48 to 52 ideal-buy zone.
38/100
40Buffett
Equinor: Q2 Profit of USD 11.48bn Leaves USD 3.44bn After Tax, and NOK 386.40 Already Pays the Base Case
Equinor is Norway's 67% state-controlled integrated energy company, built on Norwegian Continental Shelf oil, European pipeline gas, international upstream and a large trading arm, with power still immaterial to group profit. Second-quarter 2026 adjusted operating income of USD 11.48 billion left USD 3.44 billion after tax because qualifying Norwegian petroleum income carries a 78% marginal rate, and the quarter's realised USD 97.9 a barrel and USD 15.8 per MMBtu sat far above the USD 65 and USD 9 deck management uses for capital allocation. Rating Hold: at NOK 386.40 the shares already trade on the NOK 390 base-case value and 25% above the NOK 308 conservative estimate, leaving no margin of safety ahead of the NOK 230 to 245 ideal buy range.
31/100
27Buffett
Shell plc: $22.4 Billion Returned on 52% of Cash Flow, an Eight-Year Reserve Life, and No Margin of Safety at £34.10
Shell is the London-listed integrated energy major whose economic centre is upstream production plus a global LNG portfolio it runs as a merchant trading book, selling 66 million tonnes in 2024 against roughly 50 mtpa of owned liquefaction capacity. Integrated Gas and Upstream produced $15.5 billion of the group's $18.5 billion of 2025 adjusted earnings and Shell distributed $22.4 billion, 52% of its $42.9 billion of operating cash flow, but the trading contribution that most differentiates it is never separately disclosed and static proved-reserve life is only about eight years. Rating Hold: at £34.10 the share sits at the top of the £31 to £34 conservative fair-value range, so the cash-return machine is real while the entry price leaves no conservative-case margin of safety.
37/100
Viper Energy Deep-Dive Research
Viper Energy is a Permian-focused pure-play minerals and royalty cash-flow vehicle, spun out from and still deeply tied to Diamondback. The company has very low fixed costs, strong cash flow, and a mature dividend and buyback framework, but the current price already reflects much of that quality. Rating Hold: a solid business with insufficient margin of safety, best approached at a cheaper entry point.
40/100
31Buffett
Expand Energy Corporation In-Depth Value Investment Research
The largest U.S. upstream natural gas E&P producer, with improving asset quality and a strengthened balance sheet, but still a price-taker without a wide moat; at the current price of about $92.5 the margin of safety is insufficient. Rating: Watch, with an ideal buy range of $55–70.
34/100
20Buffett
Devon Energy Deep Value Investment Analysis
A U.S. onshore independent E&P that just closed its merger with Coterra in May 2026; the new company produces 1.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. It is a strong operator in a tough industry rather than a great business in a great industry, with an ideal buy range of 35-40. Rating Watch: a quality cyclical with a clear capital-return framework, but too thin a margin of safety while post-merger consolidated cash flow remains undisclosed.
34/100
Occidental Petroleum: A Deep Value Study
A large U.S. upstream oil and gas producer with the Permian (786,000 boe/d) as its core. By Q1 2026 principal debt had fallen to 13.3 billion, but the margin of safety is not obvious, with an ideal buy range of 42-48 dollars. Rating Watch: a decent package of resource assets at a fair, not cheap, price.
35/100
39Buffett
Marathon Petroleum: A Deep-Value Investment Study
The largest U.S. downstream plus midstream energy platform, with 3.0 mbpd of refining capacity, the MPLX midstream business, and 7,882 branded retail outlets. Capital-allocation discipline is strong (cumulative buybacks of $24 billion over 2023-2025 shrank the share count by 27%), but at $254.65 the stock already sits at the top of its optimistic valuation band, leaving little margin of safety. Rating Watch: an excellent operator running a cyclical asset portfolio, but priced close to the best-case outcome rather than offered at a discount.
31/100
49Buffett
Valero Energy Corporation: A Long-Term Value Investing Study
One of the three largest independent refiners in the United States, with strong operations and a sound balance sheet, yet fundamentally a spread business with no real pricing power. At the current price of $246.96, the stock already sits near the floor of the optimistic scenario and offers no margin of safety. Rating Watch: an excellent operator in a poor industry, fairly priced for a continued upcycle rather than for safety.
42/100
42Buffett
EOG Resources: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
A leading U.S. independent upstream oil and gas producer, with a five-year average ROCE of about 24% and still 18.7% in 2025. At the current $141.22 it trades at 15.2x P/E and 16.2x P/FCF, with a 2.9% dividend yield below the 4.57% 10-year Treasury, leaving an insufficient margin of safety; rated Watch.
43/100
33Buffett
The Williams Companies: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
The leading U.S. natural gas midstream infrastructure player, with its Transco system carrying roughly 1/3 of the nation's natural gas. 2025 adjusted EBITDA reached $7.75 billion, but at a trailing 34.4x P/E the stock is already expensive and rising growth capex weakens the margin of safety. Rating Watch: a good business with hard assets and strong cash flow, yet today's price already builds in high expectations for future growth.
42/100
Chevron Corporation: A Value-Investing Deep Dive
A top-tier global integrated energy company with strong asset quality and disciplined capital returns; but the industry is inherently deeply cyclical, and after the Hess acquisition the valuation already sits near the optimistic scenario, so the current $191 price offers no margin of safety. Rating: Watch.
40/100
Exxon Mobil Deep Value Analysis: A Good Asset, Not a Cheap One
XOM is a standout in the oil and gas industry: real through-cycle resilience, an advantaged Permian/Guyana/LNG asset portfolio, and a 43-year dividend growth streak all hold up; but at $154 a share the price already sits near the upper edge of the model's optimistic range, and the 4.2% conservative owner earnings yield can't even beat the 10-year Treasury.
40/100
31Buffett
ConocoPhillips: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
A leading independent upstream oil and gas producer with 2.375 million BOE/day of production and 7.637 billion BOE of proved reserves, ConocoPhillips stands out for asset diversification and capital discipline. Rating: Watch — at $120.46 and 20.4x P/E, the stock already carries a high-quality premium with no clear margin of safety.