レポートアーカイブ
すべてのリサーチ
45 ページ中 9 ページ · 全 1080 本
42/100
Sanofi SA: A Pure-Play in Transition, Still Proving Life After Dupixent
Sanofi is a French pure-play biopharma built around immunology, vaccines, and rare disease after ceding control of Opella. Dupixent alone reached 15.714 billion EUR of 2025 sales, about 36% of group revenue, and still grew 30.8% in Q1 2026, yet the market withholds a growth multiple until a post-Dupixent bridge is proven ahead of the roughly 2031 patent cliff. Rating Hold: a cleaner, cash-generative business at a cheapish multiple with 8.089 billion EUR of 2025 free cash flow, but no wide margin of safety on the hard part of the story.
45/100
BioMarin Pharmaceutical: A Rare-Disease Cash Engine in Transition
BioMarin is a profitable rare-disease biopharma whose enzyme franchise generated about 2.106 billion USD of 2025 revenue and funds the company, while VOXZOGO (926.9 million USD) drives both growth and sentiment. The Amicus acquisition diversified the portfolio into Fabry and Pompe disease and lifted 2026 revenue guidance to 3.825-3.925 billion USD, yet weekly and oral achondroplasia rivals from Ascendis and BridgeBio keep the margin of safety thin. Rating Hold: cash generation and Amicus diversification make BioMarin sturdier than sentiment implies, but VOXZOGO competition caps the upside at today's price.
36/100
Panasonic Holdings: Better Business, Priced Ahead of Proof
Panasonic Holdings is a diversified Japanese electronics group whose earnings base is still mature B2B and appliance operations, while batteries and AI-infrastructure products drive the growth narrative. FY2026 sales were ¥8.05 trillion across six segments, but ROE fell to 3.8% on ¥174.5 billion of restructuring charges, and the shares are up about 68% in 2026 on an AI-infrastructure rerating that capitalizes one hot battery-and-data-center engine across the whole group. Rating Hold: the business mix is genuinely improving, but at ¥4,540 the price already discounts most of the battery, AI-infrastructure, and restructuring upside, leaving no margin of safety against a conservative fair value near ¥2,400-¥2,690.
47/100
Symrise: A High-Quality Compounder Now Priced for Delivery, Not Discovery
Symrise is a scaled, oligopolistic flavors-and-fragrances and nutrition platform that gets paid for being embedded in customers' everyday products, with 2025 sales of €4.93 billion, a 21.9% adjusted EBITDA margin and record €780 million of business free cash flow. The 2026 question is delivery, not discovery: organic growth has cooled from 8.7% in 2024 to low single digits in 2025 and slightly negative in Q1 2026, yet cash conversion, leverage and margin quality all improved, so the franchise is intact while the near-term growth premium is not obviously earned. Rating Hold: a high-quality compounder whose €88.16 price already reflects most of the self-help and recovery, with a more comfortable margin of safety only in the high-€50s to mid-€60s.
47/100
JD.com: A Stronger Retail Core Discounted for the Cost of Transition
JD.com is China's largest self-operated online retailer, built on a supply-chain-first model spanning first-party retail, marketplace services, logistics, health and industrial procurement. Its retail core is strengthening, with JD Retail operating margin up to 5.6% in Q1 2026 and net service revenue growing 20.6% against just 1.0% product growth, yet group profit and cash conversion are obscured by heavy food-delivery and overseas investment, while listed-subsidiary stakes worth about US$17.7 billion anchor a sum-of-the-parts case. Rating Cautious Buy: the market discounts the cost of transition more than it credits a stronger retail core, large buybacks and visible listed stakes.
46/100
FUJIFILM Holdings: A Proven Reinventor Now Tested on Returns, Not Survival
FUJIFILM Holdings is a diversified Japanese technology group earning ¥3.36 trillion of FY2026 revenue across healthcare and Bio CDMO, semiconductor materials, imaging (instax) and office systems. Electronics and Imaging already supply about ¥260.9 billion, roughly three-quarters of segment operating profit, yet Healthcare ROIC is only 1.6%, FY2026 free cash flow is negative amid a capex bulge, and owner earnings near 23 times sit well above the 15.7 times headline P/E. Rating Hold: the transformation from film survivor to multi-engine compounder is real, but healthcare returns and owner earnings still lag the price, leaving no margin of safety until below ¥2,650.
49/100
ACM Research: A Credible China Semicap Franchise, a Demanding Holdco Structure
ACM Research is a Nasdaq-listed holding company whose value is dominated by its roughly 73.6%-owned, Shanghai-listed subsidiary ACM Shanghai, built on a single-wafer wet-cleaning franchise now broadening into plating, furnace, track and PECVD. The parent trades at a steep discount to the quoted value of that stake, yet the A-share quote is already rich, four customers make up 52.2% of 2025 revenue, and first-quarter 2026 free cash flow was negative 52.1 million USD. Rating Hold: strong China semicap execution is real, but at 104.50 USD the price offers too little protection against cash-conversion, policy and holdco-structure risk.
49/100
85Buffett
Bentley Systems: Durable Infrastructure Compounder, Thin Margin of Safety
Bentley Systems is a specialized infrastructure-engineering software vendor whose economic engine is a recurring estate embedded in civil, utility, and owner-operator workflows, with $1.495 billion ARR, 93% recurring revenue, 99% account retention, and 109% net retention. Full-year 2025 revenue rose 11.0% to $1.502 billion and free cash flow reached $520.2 million, yet a dual-class structure leaves the Bentley Control Group with about 62.8% of voting power and the $30 price sits roughly at conservative fair value. Rating Hold: a high-quality, sticky compounder whose cash conversion the headline P/E understates, but founder control and a thin margin of safety make a fresh buy more attractive below $25.
44/100
Black Sesame International: Credible Challenger, Unproven Cash Conversion
Black Sesame is a fabless designer of automotive compute SoCs, selling ADAS chips and bundled solutions; 2025 revenue rose 73% to RMB822 million, yet it stays deeply loss-making with R&D near 1.7x sales. It has crossed the technical-credibility threshold (A1000 shipping in Geely, BYD and FAW models) but not the cash-conversion one, leaning on repeated 2025-2026 equity raises. Rating Hold: real commercialization exists, but recurring dilution and negative owner earnings cap valuation support, with a true margin of safety only below about HK$6.
57/100
88Buffett
Belimo Holding：AI冷却の長い滑走路をすでに織り込んだプレミアムHVACコンパウンダー
Belimoはスイスの純粋なHVACフィールドデバイス大手で、暖房・冷房・換気を調節するアクチュエーター、制御バルブ、センサー、メーターを、施工・改修チャネルで売上の約60%、OEMチャネルで約40%を販売しており、自社が供給する統合ビル自動化大手とは競合しない。2025年の売上は現地通貨ベースで23.3%増のCHF 11.208億、EBITマージン20.8%、ROIC 27.8%となり、売上の約17%を占めるAIデータセンター液冷が、耐久性のあるエネルギー効率改修フランチャイズに加わる第二の成長エンジンとなった一方、直近利益の約61倍という株価は自社の過去レンジの上限付近にある。レーティングはウォッチ：真に優れたニッチコンパウンダーであり、株価はすでに卓越性と長いAI冷却の滑走路の両方を織り込み済みで、より魅力的なエントリーはおおよそCHF 480を下回った場合のみとなる。
53/100
80Buffett
Sika AG：循環的なエアポケットにある高品質コンパウンダー
Sikaは建設用化学品（混和剤、防水材、シーラント、屋根材、産業用接着剤）の世界的リーダーであり、100カ国超・400以上の工場を通じて地域に適応したシステムを販売し、ParexやMBCCのようなボルトオン型M&Aをそのモデルに組み込んでいる。2025年の売上高はスイスフラン高と建設サイクルの軟化により4.8%減の112.0億スイスフランとなったが、現地通貨ベースの成長はプラスを維持し、素材マージンは54.9%に上昇、MBCCのシナジーは1.82億スイスフランに達した。評価はホールド：一流のシリアル・アクワイアラー型コンパウンダーが循環的なエアポケットに捕まっている状態だが、直近利益の約26倍という評価はオーガニック成長が回復する前からマージン回復の多くを既に織り込んでいる。
51/100
81Buffett
NARI Technology: Grid-Control Franchise, Quality Already Priced
NARI is the dominant listed proxy for China's grid-control layer: dispatch software, relay protection, UHV control and energy-management systems built around State Grid. 2025 revenue reached RMB 66.23bn with operating cash flow of RMB 12.77bn, yet revenue is outgrowing profit as the mix shifts toward lower-margin storage and outside-grid work. Rating Hold: a high-quality policy-cycle compounder whose roughly 22x trailing valuation leaves little margin of safety against further mix dilution.
48/100
AVIC Jonhon Optronic: Defense-Grade Interconnect Leader, Recovery Already Priced
AVIC Jonhon is a Chinese high-reliability interconnect maker whose defense-grade connector core still carries the business (connectors are 98.5% of revenue) while EVs, data centers and optics become the larger growth engine. 2025 revenue edged up 3.4% to RMB 21.39 billion but attributable profit fell 35.6% to about RMB 2.16 billion as defense demand softened and gold, copper and silver costs surged, and at RMB 42.69 the stock already trades on a mid-40s trailing multiple that discounts a recovery while cash conversion stays weak. Rating Hold: the franchise is intact and a rebound is plausible, but today's price pre-spends most of it with no margin of safety.
53/100
80Buffett
Straumann Holding AG：厳しい株価水準にあるデンタル・プラットフォームのリーダー
Straumannはスペシャルティ歯科分野の世界的リーダーであり、プレミアムインプラントメーカーから、インプラント・デジタルワークフロー・生体材料・補綴物・クリアアライナーにまたがるマルチブランド・マルチ価格帯グループへと成長したスイスのプラットフォーム企業で、2025年度売上高はCHF 26.1億、CHF 60億のインプラント市場の約35%を占める。フランチャイズの質は本物であり（ROCE 30.6%、株主資本比率57.6%、10年にわたるシェア拡大）、一方で粗利率は価値帯・デジタル比率の上昇に伴い76.2%から68.6%へ、フリーキャッシュフロー率は21.8%から11.1%へ低下しており、株価はコア利益の約35.8倍、フリーキャッシュフロー利回り1.7%で取引されている。評価はホールド：長い滑走路を持つ高品質なコンパウンダーだが、株価はすでに次のマージン・エコシステム局面の多くを織り込んでおり、安全域はほとんど残っていない。
52/100
84Buffett
GSK plc: Rebuilt Biopharma, Racing the Patent Cliff
GSK plc is a UK biopharma rebuilt around vaccines and specialty medicines after the 2022 Haleon demerger, with 2025 sales of £32.7bn anchored by Shingrix and the ViiV HIV franchise. Specialty medicines now drive growth (£13.5bn, +14% CER in Q1 2026) and core operating profit rose 11% to £9.8bn, yet the whole story hinges on replacing the dolutegravir HIV cliff in 2028–2030 before it arrives. Rating Hold: a genuinely higher-quality franchise at roughly 11.6x core earnings, but the price already assumes much of the patent-cliff bridge, leaving little margin of safety.
60/100
72Buffett
サングロウ・パワー・サプライ：循環的な殻をまとう高品質成長
サングロウ・パワー・サプライは、太陽光インバーターとエネルギー貯蔵システムにおける創業者主導のグローバルリーダーであり、海外売上高は2025年収益の60.7%を占め、貯蔵事業は今や売上高の41.9%を占める最大セグメントとなっている。営業キャッシュフローはCN¥169億まで増加し、売掛金も改善したが、2026年第1四半期の売上高は18.3%減、利益は40.1%減となり、品質ストーリーの裏にある鋭いマージンミックスの循環性を露呈した。評価はホールド：真の品質成長フランチャイズだが、プレミアム価格で取引されており、執行ミスに対する安全マージンはほとんど残されていない。
U.S. Market Close Daily | 2026-06-26
Major indexes edged lower as an AI and semiconductor reset outweighed better breadth, cheaper oil, and lower Treasury yields.
42/100
94Buffett
Games Workshop: An Exceptional Warhammer Compounder, Priced for Continued Excellence
Games Workshop is the vertically integrated owner of the Warhammer universe, designing, manufacturing and selling miniatures, paints, books and licensed media from a single UK creative stack at returns on capital few public companies reach. FY2025 delivered £617.5m of total revenue and £262.8m of profit before tax, and FY2026 is guided higher even as the volatile licensing line steps down from £52.5m to at least £30m. Rating Hold: an exceptional IP compounder whose roughly 35x earnings multiple already prepays years of flawless execution, leaving no margin of safety at £217.
38/100
Simulations Plus: A Credible Drug-Modeling Specialist, Now Priced as a Near-Cash Deal Stock
Simulations Plus builds scientifically trusted drug-development modeling software (GastroPlus, MonolixSuite, ADMET Predictor, DILIsym), but its revenue mix has drifted toward lower-margin services since the 2024 Pro-ficiency acquisition, which pulled FY2025 gross margin to 58% and triggered a $77.2m impairment. On 2026-06-26 the equity trades as a near-cash event security: Altaris' agreed $18.50-per-share takeout caps upside just above the $18.14 close, while a broken deal would reopen real downside. Rating Avoid: a thin-spread cash-deal security whose unresolved software-mix question still sits underneath the transaction.
38/100
Carl Zeiss Meditec: A High-Grade Ophthalmology Franchise Forced to Relearn Its Operating Model in China
Carl Zeiss Meditec is a premium German ophthalmology and microsurgery franchise where ophthalmology drives about 77% of sales and recurring revenue has climbed from 9% two decades ago to roughly 50%. A simultaneous China VBP shock and weak Americas equipment demand crushed H1 FY2025/26 adjusted EBITA margin to 6.1% from 10.7%, and the shares have fallen more than 80% from their 2021 peak to 27.96 euros. Rating Watch: a high-quality medtech franchise in a real trough, but the China relisting and margin-restoration bridge is still too unproven for a clean entry, with the ideal buy zone at 24 to 26 euros.
45/100
77Buffett
SAP: A High-Quality Incumbent Late in Its Cloud Migration, Now Priced for Proof Rather Than Possibility
SAP is the incumbent enterprise-applications vendor migrating its captive ERP installed base from license-and-support to cloud subscriptions, where process centrality keeps converting into long-duration economics. In 2025 cloud revenue reached 21.0 billion euros and predictable revenue 86%, with total cloud backlog of 77.3 billion euros, yet FY2026 guidance for slightly decelerating current-backlog growth reset the stock more than 50% below its early-2025 peak to about 21.5x earnings. Rating Hold: the cloud transition is genuinely working and the franchise is high quality, but at today's price the market already asks for proof rather than possibility, with the ideal buy zone at 95 to 101 euros.
42/100
Shimano: A Fortress Cycling Franchise in a Real Trough, But the Price Already Pays for the Repair
Shimano is a century-old Japanese precision manufacturer whose bicycle drivetrain and braking franchise still drives roughly three-quarters of group sales, with fishing tackle the resilient second engine. Group operating income has fallen from a 169.2 billion yen pandemic peak in 2022 to a guided 47.0 billion yen in 2026 (margin near 10% against a historical 20% to 25%), and at 17,340 yen (about 35x guided earnings) the price already discounts much of the eventual repair, leaving no margin of safety. Rating Hold: a fortress-quality franchise in a real but uncertain trough, where the moat is intact yet the entry price is not yet compelling, with the ideal buy zone at 12,000 to 14,000 yen.
51/100
83Buffett
Hengrui Pharmaceuticals: A Fortress Innovation Platform, But RMB 50 Already Pays for the Upgrade
Hengrui Pharmaceuticals is China's largest listed innovative-drug platform, still earning mainly from domestic drug sales while its valuation increasingly rests on converting self-funded R&D into commercial franchises and recurring overseas licensing income. 2025 revenue reached RMB 31.63 billion with net profit of RMB 7.71 billion and a fortress balance sheet holding RMB 40.16 billion of cash, yet at RMB 50.04 (about 41x trailing earnings) the price sits above the conservative fair value and leaves no margin of safety. Rating Hold: a rare high-quality China pharma platform already priced for an innovation-monetization upgrade it has not yet fully earned.
U.S. Market Close Daily | 2026-06-25
U.S. stocks closed mixed in a sector-rotation tape as semiconductor strength offset pressure from mega-cap consumer technology and sticky inflation kept rate risk in focus.