Archives des études

Toutes les études

Page 21 sur 45 · 1080 études

22/100 Avoid Mercury Systems: A Long-Term Owner's Study A supplier of high-reliability electronics and signal-processing platforms for aerospace and defense, with gross margin recovering from a fall of 41.7% to 27.9%; at $112.87 the stock trades above 90x FCF, pricing in an excellent outcome while operating quality stays unproven. Rating Avoid: a strong industry attached to an unproven turnaround already priced for perfection, with an ideal buy of $25–35. Mercury Systems, Inc.MRCY · États-UnisAerospace & Defense3 juin 2026 24/100 Watch Kencoa Aerospace: A Value Study of an Aerostructures Supplier The Buffett framework rates Kencoa Aerospace a Watch. The company has cleared the entry barriers of the aerospace supply chain and grew Q1 2026 revenue 45% year over year, yet free cash flow was negative for five straight years (2021-2025) and a perpetual convertible bond, if fully converted, dilutes existing holders by about 67.7%. At roughly KRW 23,700 the stock already prices in a strong turnaround; fair value sits at KRW 12,000-18,000 and an ideal entry at KRW 10,000-14,000, leaving no margin of safety. Rating Watch: a barrier-cleared turnaround small cap that has not yet proven it can convert orders into durable, distributable per-share cash flow. Kencoa Aerospace274090 · CoréeAerospace & Defense3 juin 2026 33/100 Watch Toray Industries: A Long-Term Owner's Study On the Buffett framework, the verdict is Watch. Toray expects roughly JPY 2.585 trillion of FY2026 revenue, yet ROIC is just 4.7% and ROE 4.5%. At about JPY 1,160 (P/B 0.94) the stock looks cheaper than book, but a conservative owner-earnings figure of about JPY 77 billion implies 22x, which is not cheap. Rating Watch: a complex materials group with some excellent assets but a margin of safety that is not yet there at a fair-buy band of JPY 850–950. Toray Industries, Inc.3402 · TSESpecialty Chemicals3 juin 2026 37/100 83Buffett Watch Amphenol Long-Term Owner Perspective Research Amphenol is a high-quality connector and interconnect platform, but its current price already discounts substantial growth. With 2025 revenue of $23.1 billion and FCF of $4.39 billion, the current price of $148.4 implies roughly 40.9x PE and about 40x owner earnings; intrinsic value is estimated at $65 to $150, with an ideal buy range of $80 to $100. Rating Watch: a durable compounder that deserves close tracking, but not aggressive new capital at today's valuation. Amphenol CorporationAPH · États-UnisElectronic Connectivity & Sensing3 juin 2026 42/100 78Buffett Watch Curtiss-Wright Research from a Long-Term Owner's Perspective Curtiss-Wright is a high-quality aerospace, defense, naval nuclear, and industrial technology compounder with strong cash generation and embedded customer relationships. At $769 per share and a $28.5 billion market capitalization, the stock trades around 48x owner earnings and 56x P/E, while my DCF points to fair intrinsic value of $300-380 and an ideal buy range of $220-300. Research rating Watch: a good business at a bad price, with little margin of safety today. Curtiss-Wright CorporationCW · États-UnisAerospace & Defense3 juin 2026 35/100 56Buffett Watch Moog Long-Term Owner's View Research Moog is a precision motion-control company with defensible positions in aerospace, defense, space, and selected industrial and medical niches. Fiscal 2025 revenue reached a record $3.861 billion and margins improved to 13%, but a material weakness in internal control, uneven FCF conversion, and a stock price near $373 leave no margin of safety against an intrinsic value range of $90 to $260 and a fair buy range of $95 to $145. Report rating Watch: a better business, but not yet a value-investing entry point. Moog Inc.MOG-A · États-UnisAerospace & Defense3 juin 2026 28/100 40Buffett Watch Qorvo: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective Rating Watch. At the current 102.74 USD, the standalone intrinsic value falls in a fair range of 100-120, with an ideal buy zone of 80-90; Apple accounts for roughly 50% of revenue, and QRVO is in the middle of the Skyworks merger (implied consideration around 108.46), leaving no clear margin of safety. Rating Watch: a real but unexceptional business whose price, distorted by deal arbitrage, does not yet offer enough cushion for a long-term owner. Qorvo, Inc.QRVO · États-UnisSemiconductors3 juin 2026 33/100 56Buffett Watch Trelleborg: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective A Buffett-framework rating of Watch. Trelleborg is a high-quality engineered-polymer platform with solid cash flow and a sturdy balance sheet, yet ROCE of roughly 12% sits below target; at about SEK 399 it trades at 26-28x owner earnings, with a fair entry of SEK 260-310 and an insufficient margin of safety. Rating Watch: a quality industrial worth owning, but not at today's price. Trelleborg ABTREL-B · STSpecialty Chemicals3 juin 2026 30/100 69Buffett Watch Woodward: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective A great company at a poor price. At roughly $344.7 today, a trailing P/E near 41.3x, and a market cap around $21.1 billion, Woodward is a genuinely durable cross-cycle earner with real engineering moats in aerospace and select industrial controls. But DCF and relative valuation both point to fair intrinsic value of $170-240, with an ideal buy range of $130-180, leaving no margin of safety at the current price. Rating Watch: a high-quality business that today looks far more like a bad price than a bad company. Woodward, Inc.WWD · États-UnisAerospace & Defense3 juin 2026 30/100 25Buffett Watch ATI: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective ATI is a high-barrier aerospace and specialty materials company whose operating quality has improved, with aerospace and defense now 68% of sales. But at the current price of $178.48 the stock trades at roughly 28.8x EV/EBITDA against an intrinsic value of only $60–145, leaving an insufficient margin of safety. Rating Watch: a strong business at the wrong price. ATI Inc.ATI · États-UnisDefense Advanced Materials3 juin 2026 26/100 26Buffett Watch Carpenter Technology: A Long-Term Owner's View Carpenter Technology is a leading aerospace specialty-materials company whose operating quality has improved sharply, yet at the current price of $487.25 (51x PE) the stock is extraordinarily expensive, with fair intrinsic value of only $150–190 and no margin of safety. Rating Watch: a fine business at a poor price, with future growth and peak margins already paid for. Carpenter Technology CorporationCRS · États-UnisDefense Advanced Materials3 juin 2026 44/100 Watch Hexcel Long-Term Owner's View Research Hexcel is a leading aerospace-grade carbon fiber and prepreg supplier, but it behaves more like a high-quality cyclical stock than a smooth compounder. At USD 88.04, the stock already prices in a recovery, while our neutral DCF is around USD 55 and fair buy range is USD 50-60. Research rating Watch: a good company, but with insufficient margin of safety. Hexcel CorporationHXL · États-UnisAerospace & Defense3 juin 2026 28/100 Watch Materion: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective A beryllium and advanced-materials maker with a moderate moat, but at roughly $230 the stock sits far above a fair intrinsic value of $70–95, leaving no margin of safety. Resource scarcity, process know-how, and qualification-based switching costs are real, yet the current price already discounts years of flawless execution. Rating Watch: a good business at a bad price, with a fair buy range of $55–70. Materion CorporationMTRN · États-UnisDefense Advanced Materials3 juin 2026 26/100 Avoid Sphere Corp: A Value Study of Aerospace Specialty Alloys From a Buffett lens, the verdict is Avoid. Sphere has reinvented itself as an aerospace specialty-alloy supply-chain operator (99.8% of revenue from aerospace alloys), but 2025 operating cash flow was -KRW 14.67 billion, and the KRW 1.65 trillion market cap already exceeds the KRW 1.544 trillion headline of the ten-year SpaceX contract. At the current KRW 32,500, the stock sits well above an optimistic intrinsic-value range of KRW 19,000–28,000, leaving no margin of safety. Rating Avoid: a good industry attached to a price that prices in too much. Sphere Corp347700 · CoréeDefense Advanced Materials3 juin 2026 29/100 Watch Filtronic: A Long-Term Value Study Filtronic is a technically capable, financially healthy small-cap RF/mmWave supplier whose single greatest weakness is extreme customer concentration. At roughly 391.25p the stock sits far above our fair intrinsic-value range (120-180p) and even our optimistic ceiling (300p). Rating Watch: a decent niche technology company priced for many years of flawless, diversified, high-speed growth rather than a value stock with a real margin of safety; ideal buy zone 90-150p. Filtronic plcFTC · LSERF Components3 juin 2026 31/100 37Buffett Watch Constellium: A Long-Term Value Investing Study We maintain a Watch rating. Constellium is an aluminum processor whose technical depth is underappreciated yet whose cyclicality is inescapable. At the current price of $36.07 the stock looks clearly expensive against a conservative intrinsic value of $19–25 and sits near the top of a fair value of $28–35, leaving too little margin of safety. Rating Watch: a capable, cycle-bound aluminum fabricator worth tracking, with an ideal buy range of $24–30. Constellium SECSTM · États-UnisAluminum Processing3 juin 2026 26/100 Watch STMicroelectronics: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective A genuinely capable global semiconductor IDM in automotive, industrial, MCUs, power devices, and MEMS, but one whose business quality remains highly cyclical rather than that of a steady cash cow. At the close of 2026-06-02, the stock at $79.51 already sits near the floor of the $80–100 optimistic range and above the top of the $55–70 fair range, leaving no margin of safety. Rating Watch: a decent company at an optimistic price, with an ideal buy zone of $45–55. STMicroelectronics N.V.STM · États-UnisSemiconductors3 juin 2026 23/100 Avoid Velo3D: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective Velo3D still has not proven it can generate positive Owner Earnings, and its growth depends on continuous dilutive financing. At $22.13, the share price sits far above an intrinsic value range of $0 to $18. Rating Avoid: an ideal entry zone of $3 to $6. Velo3D, Inc.VELO · États-UnisAdditive Manufacturing3 juin 2026 52/100 Hold Tokyo Electron Deep Dive A high-quality equipment leader at a rich price. A near-monopoly in coat/develop and an installed base of 96,000 tools underpin its service cash flow; but FY2026 operating margin slipped to 25.6%, the record net profit was flattered by selling strategic holdings, and at the current 60,840 yen the static PE is near 50x with an owner-earnings yield of only 1.2%-1.7%. Rating Hold: ideal buy below 40,000 yen. Tokyo Electron8035 · TSEAI Semiconductor Equipment3 juin 2026 57/100 63Buffett Éviter Broadcom : un rapport de recherche approfondi Excellente entreprise, mauvais prix. Le chiffre d'affaires IA continue d'accélérer (8.4 milliards au T1, 10.7 milliards attendus au T2) avec une marge de flux de trésorerie disponible proche de 42 %, et pourtant le cours actuel de 481.57 dollars n'implique qu'un rendement du flux de trésorerie disponible sur douze mois glissants d'environ 1.3 % (très en dessous des 4.46 % du bon du Trésor à 10 ans), intégrant déjà un optimisme IA encore non vérifié à l'approche du T2. Note Éviter : un composeur de grande qualité dont le cours a devancé les catalyseurs mêmes qu'il lui reste à livrer, ce qui nous amène à abaisser de Surveiller à Éviter. Broadcom Inc.AVGO · États-UnisAI Chips3 juin 2026 Watch U.S. Market Close Daily | 2026-06-02 AI semiconductors kept pushing the indexes to fresh highs on the 2026-06-02 U.S. close, but divergence across megacap tech, software, and breadth shows the market remains a high-level, structural risk-on rather than a broad-based advance. The main engine is the AI infrastructure chain, where Marvell and HPE drove a re-rating of chips, servers, and networking gear, offsetting Alphabet's financing dilution, higher oil prices, and Middle East risk. Rating Watch: the trend is strong and capital is willing to chase hardware backed by orders and compute capex, but the indexes sit at elevated levels and chasing strength on a new high alone is not worthwhile. U.S. MarketMARKET · États-UnisUS Market Close Daily2 juin 2026 49/100 44Buffett Watch PDD Holdings Deep-Dive Research Report PDD is a cash-rich, asset-light platform company whose domestic business is easier to underwrite than Temu. The core debate is whether Temu's profit, fulfillment, and compliance costs can become verifiable enough to support a higher multiple. Research rating Watch: strong cash flow, but insufficient visibility on Temu and a limited margin of safety for new capital. PDD HoldingsPDD · États-UnisInternet Platforms2 juin 2026 27/100 Watch Bio-Techne Corporation: A Deep Value Investing Study A high-quality life-science tools company trading at a rich price. At $51.68 the stock carries a trailing P/E of roughly 74.9x while three-year revenue has compounded at only 3.3%, so the margin of safety is thin. Rating Watch: ideal entry sits at $28-35, with the roughly $1 billion Wilson Wolf follow-on acquisition as the key risk to monitor. Bio-Techne CorporationTECH · États-UnisLife Science Tools31 mai 2026 29/100 Watch Molson Coors (TAP): A Long-Term Business-Owner View At the current price of $39.53, we rate TAP a Watch. The cash flow is real (underlying FCF of roughly $1.1 billion) and the valuation is cheap (EV/EBITDA of 6.31x), yet beer demand is in structural decline and the moat is narrowing. Rating Watch: a genuine cash generator without a growth engine, with a fair buy range of $28–34. Molson Coors Beverage CompanyTAP · États-UnisBeverages31 mai 2026