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43/100
43Buffett
Weir PLC: 82% Aftermarket Revenue Meets 2.2x Leverage and a 15.2% ROCE, and £27.24 Already Prices the H2 Recovery
Weir PLC is a mining-focused engineering group whose Warman pumps, Cavex cyclones and ESCO ground-engaging tools earn most of their money from replacing worn components rather than from selling new machines, with aftermarket at 82.5% of H1 2026 revenue. First-half orders rose 8% at constant currency to £1.426bn and book-to-bill reached 1.12x, yet adjusted operating margin fell 100bp to 18.8%, ROCE fell 250bp to 15.2% and net debt/EBITDA climbed from 0.7x at end-2024 to 2.2x after the £624m Micromine purchase and three smaller deals. Rating Hold: at £27.24 the shares sit on about 20.6x FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of £1.324 and inside the £26–£34 acceptable-hold band, but they offer no margin of safety against the £23–£25 conservative value, so a new purchase only becomes compelling around £18.50–£20.00.
27/100
J Sainsbury plc: The Value of the Post-Argos Food Retailer
J Sainsbury is the UK's number-two grocer, and the agreed sale of Argos to Swift Partners leaves a food retailer with Nectar loyalty and Nectar360 retail-media economics attached. The simplification removes £4.125bn of FY2025/26 Argos sales that carried only £9m of underlying operating profit, while the retained business earned £1.025bn of Retail underlying operating profit on £33.551bn of Retail sales, a 3.06% margin at which 10 basis points are worth roughly £33.6m. Rating Hold: grocery spend share reached 15.2% with food volume share at a ten-year high and Retail free cash flow was £574m, but at £3.415 the shares sit only about 9% below the £3.72 base intrinsic value and above the roughly £3.01 conservative case, so the ideal buy range is £2.30-£2.40.
41/100
HOCHTIEF: Data Centers Are 21% of Backlog and 32% of FY2025 Orders, and EUR 426 Prices the Boom Against a EUR 358 Base SOTP
HOCHTIEF is an Essen-based infrastructure group whose US construction manager Turner supplies most of the earnings, alongside CIMIC's Australian contracting and Thiess mining services, European civil engineering, and equity-accounted stakes of 38.2% in FlatironDragados and 20% in Abertis. FY2025 sales rose 14.8% to EUR 38.24bn and operational net profit 26.3% to EUR 789m, while EUR 16.8bn of data-center orders were 32% of group intake and left data centers at 21% of the EUR 72.5bn year-end backlog; the first half of 2026 then lifted backlog to EUR 84.8bn and 2026 operational-net-profit guidance to EUR 1.025bn to EUR 1.100bn. Rating Watch: at EUR 426 the shares are roughly 31 times midpoint 2026 guidance and 19% above the EUR 358 base sum-of-the-parts, with the conservative case only EUR 238 and an ideal buy range of EUR 180–190.
48/100
SoFi Technologies: 2.48 Times Tangible Book Prices a 20% Sustainable ROTCE Against the 9% Its Own 2026 Guidance Implies, and the Personal-Loan Book Has Never Met a Recession
SoFi Technologies is a U.S. digital bank that funds lending with deposits, distributes loans capital-light through its Loan Platform Business, and sells banking infrastructure through Galileo and Technisys. Q2 2026 set records, with adjusted net revenue of $1.206bn, 15.8 million members up 35% and $45.5bn of deposits, yet net interest income of $788.2m still outweighed fee-based revenue of $472.3m, so bank economics remain decisive. At $18.22 the shares trade at 2.48 times tangible book, which under a Gordon framework implies roughly a 20% sustainable return on tangible equity against the 9% adjusted ROTE embedded in 2026 guidance. Rating Hold: fee growth and cheap deposits are real, but the price already pays for returns to double while the personal-loan book has never been tested by a U.S. recession.
36/100
Associated British Foods plc: Primark, FoodCo and the Value of the Split
Associated British Foods is a family-controlled consumer group pairing Primark value-fashion retail with grocery, sugar, agriculture and ingredients, and Primark produced £1.126bn, or 64.9%, of the £1.734bn FY2025 group adjusted operating profit. The April 2026 decision to demerge Primark from FoodCo converts the conglomerate discount into an execution question, but the FY2026 downgrade cycle runs wider than the July Sugar warning: continental European like-for-like sales were down 3.6% in Q3, Primark’s margin guide has slipped from an underlying FY2025 level of roughly 12% to about 10%, and Sugar has moved from an expected small profit to a £25m-£60m loss. Rating Hold: at £20.72 the shares sit inside the £20.40-27.60 acceptable-hold band but above the roughly £18 conservative SOTP value, so margin-of-safety sufficiency is none and the ideal buy range is £13.50-14.40.
36/100
Eni: One-Third of Pro Forma EBIT Now Sits Outside the Consolidated Perimeter, and EUR 23 Already Pays for Both the Satellite Rerating and USD 104 Brent
Eni is Italy's state-influenced integrated energy major, running exploration-led upstream growth alongside gas and LNG trading, refining and chemicals, and the partly sold transition businesses Enilive and Plenitude. Its distinguishing feature is the satellite model: in H1 2026, EUR 2.977bn of EUR 8.911bn pro forma adjusted EBIT, or 33%, came from JVs and associates outside the consolidated perimeter, while Q2 adjusted net profit doubling to EUR 2.333bn rested on Brent at USD 104.52/bbl against a USD 70 through-cycle deck. A through-cycle sum-of-the-parts gives about EUR 24.9 per share against the EUR 23.075 close, with a conservative case near EUR 19.1. Rating Hold: a strong operator at a fair-to-full cyclical price, worth owning for the distribution but offering a new buyer no margin of safety.
44/100
HENSOLDT AG: Can the Order Flood Pass Through the Narrow Gate of Capacity, Margin and Cash?
HENSOLDT is a German pure-play defence sensor company that embeds radar, electronic warfare and optronics into fighter jets, warships and armoured platforms, and it earns its living from the rising electronic content of each weapon system. First-half 2026 order intake doubled and the order backlog reached a record 10.356 billion EUR, yet the first-half adjusted EBITDA margin was only 11.8%, and full-year guidance requires 23.5% to 24.4% in the second half, higher than any second half of the past four years. Rating Hold: the structural growth on the order side is real, but at 79.70 EUR the share price already sits almost exactly on the base-case valuation, leaving no margin of safety.
39/100
74Buffett
Southern Copper: the Record Quarter Came From $6 Copper and $2.24/lb By-Product Credits While Output Fell 3.5%, and $198.76 Already Prices the Optimistic Case
Southern Copper is an integrated Peru-Mexico copper miner, 88.9% controlled by Grupo México, that monetises molybdenum, silver and zinc alongside copper cathode. Its record Q2 2026 was built on price rather than volume: revenue rose 40.6% to $4.289bn and attributable net income 71.6% to $1.670bn, yet mined copper output fell 3.5% to 230,662 tonnes and every major by-product declined, while by-product credits of $2.24/lb cut net cash cost to $0.05/lb against a gross cash cost of $2.29/lb that barely moved. On a $4.50/lb through-cycle copper price the base value is about $138 per share versus the $198.76 close, and the conservative case is about $94, so there is no margin of safety. Rating Watch: an unusually good copper franchise whose 2035 growth pipeline and 2026 metal prices are already largely paid for.
54/100
89Buffett
Nongfu Spring: Tea Overtook Water Back in 2024 and Now Supplies 52% of Segment Profit, While HK$42.40 Sits 12% Above Conservative Value
Nongfu Spring is a Chinese packaged-beverage producer whose Oriental Leaf-led RTD tea franchise has overtaken packaged water in both revenue and segment profit, leaving water as a distribution anchor instead of the earnings engine. The crossover is older than the headlines suggest: tea already exceeded water in full-year 2024 and again in H1 2025, and H1 2026 only widened it, with tea revenue of RMB13.122bn (+30.1%, 44.2% of sales) against water's RMB9.641bn (+2.1%, 32.4%), while tea supplied about 52% of disclosed segment result at a 48.8% segment-result margin. Water is being re-rated rather than impaired, growing 2.1% while national category volume fell 4.9% and value fell 7.3%, and a sum-of-the-parts that values the two segments separately puts about 73% of the water-plus-tea operating value in tea. Rating Hold: base intrinsic value is HK$46.5 against the HK$42.40 close, but today's HK$42.40 sits 12% above the HK$37.7 conservative case, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy range is HK$28-30.
49/100
GE Vernova Inc.: Free Cash Flow Guidance Rose 71% on $11.7bn of H1 Working Capital, and $941.95 Sits Above the $590-780 Hold Band
GE Vernova is the former GE power platform: gas and nuclear generation equipment carrying a large installed-base service annuity, grid equipment sold into a transformer and HVDC shortage, and a loss-making wind business. Q2 2026 separated the three cleanly, with Power at an 18.8% segment EBITDA margin and Electrification at 18.4% while Wind lost $275m at a negative 13.6% margin; management then raised FY2026 free cash flow guidance 71% at the midpoint to $11.5-12.5bn even though roughly $11.7bn of H1 operating cash came from working capital, dominated by customer advances. Rating Watch: the business is worth materially more than the prior report modeled, but $941.95 sits above the $590-780 acceptable-hold band and normalized 2026 owner earnings of $3.5-4.5bn yield only 1.4-1.8%.
36/100
Recursion Pharmaceuticals: A Sub-$375m Cost Reset Buys Runway into Early 2028, but $3.63 Already Pays for About 66% of a $1.28bn Platform Option
Recursion is a clinical-stage TechBio company that sells discovery work, milestones and prospective royalties to pharmaceutical partners while funding an internally owned small-molecule pipeline, with no approved-product revenue. Q2 2026 total revenue of $7.67m sat below $11.49m of cost of revenue and a further $131m of R&D and G&A, yet management cut FY2026 cash operating expense guidance to below $375m and $556.8m of cash and restricted cash funds operations into early 2028; the headline 43% REC-4881 polyp reduction was disclosed in December 2025, not August 2026, so the post-June rebound was re-rating rather than clinical de-risking. Rating Watch: base intrinsic value is $4.40 against the $3.63 close, but the $2.80 conservative case sits below today’s price, leaving no margin of safety and an ideal buy zone of $1.90-2.20.
63/100
46Buffett
Palantir Technologies Inc.: 93% Growth and a 47% GAAP Operating Margin, but $174.33 Already Equals the $172 Optimistic DCF Value
Palantir Technologies builds data-integration and AI decision platforms for Western governments and large commercial enterprises, funded by about $9.2 billion of liquidity and essentially no conventional debt. The gap between an accelerating business and an already-optimistic price is the whole case: Q2 2026 revenue grew 93% to $1.935 billion at a 47% GAAP operating margin, with U.S. commercial revenue up 149% and U.S. commercial remaining deal value up 124% to $6.238 billion, yet the fully diluted $447.8 billion equity value works out to roughly 149x trailing earnings, 133x conventional free cash flow and 178x SBC-adjusted owner earnings. Rating Watch: $174.33 sits outside all three modelled bands, above the $94-126 acceptable-hold range but below the $190-215 clearly-overvalued line, and it already equals the roughly $172 optimistic DCF value, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy range is $33-41.
45/100
MiniMax Group Inc.: Platform Revenue Grew 703% to 63.4% of Sales While Gross Margin Is Still Only 17.9%, and HK$361.40 Prices the Optimistic 2030 Case
MiniMax is a Shanghai-based foundation-model developer that sells the same intelligence twice, through consumer apps such as Hailuo and Talkie and through an Open Platform API used by enterprises and developers. The revenue engine has genuinely outrun the May thesis: H1 2026 revenue of US$116.6 million grew 283% and exceeded all of FY2025, while Open Platform revenue rose 703% to 63.4% of sales. The economics have not followed. Consolidated gross margin fell to 17.9% from FY2025's 25.4%, and R&D of US$296.9 million ran at 2.55 times revenue and roughly fourteen times gross profit. Rating Watch: at HK$361.40 the stock is about six times the HK$60 conservative present value and twice the roughly HK$180 base case, so new money is pointed at HK$40 to 48.
37/100
80Buffett
Nestlé S.A.: A Narrow RIG Recovery Behind a 15-16x Operating Multiple Once L'Oréal's CHF 35bn Is Stripped Out, and CHF 78.31 Leaves No Conservative Margin of Safety
Nestlé is the world's largest packaged-food group, economically concentrated in coffee, PetCare and nutrition, and it separately owns 20.16% of L'Oréal. The gap between a repairing operating company and an already-repaired price is the whole case: Q2 RIG reached 1.8% while pricing slowed to 1.9%, but developed-market H1 RIG was only 0.6% with Europe at zero in Q2, and H1 net profit fell 31.4% on CHF 469m of restructuring and a CHF 1.356bn held-for-sale write-down. Rating Hold: CHF 78.31 sits inside the CHF 72-92 acceptable-hold band and below a low-CHF80s base value, but above the CHF 68-73 conservative range, and stripping out the CHF 35bn discounted L'Oréal stake still leaves the operating business at 15-16 times normalized UTOP, so the margin of safety is none and new money should wait for CHF 54-58.
27/100
70Buffett
Tsingtao Brewery: H1 Volume Fell 4.9% While Profit Held Flat on Cost Savings, and CNY51.49 Is 12% Above Conservative Value
Tsingtao Brewery is a national Chinese brewer anchored in Shandong that monetises its master brand through premium mix while aggregate beer volumes decline, with mid/high-end products now about 75.5% of main-brand volume and no financial debt on the balance sheet. H1 2026 shows the margin story running ahead of the volume story: volume fell 4.9% to 4.500 million kL and revenue to CNY19.655bn, yet attributable profit still rose CNY15.5m, because gross margin improved from 43.70% to 44.86% and selling expense fell CNY274m, roughly CNY167m of that beyond what lower volume alone explains. The competitive read is harder than the industry read, because national output rose 0.2% over the same half while China Resources Beer grew volume 1.7% and premium volume above 10% against Tsingtao's 2.6%. Rating Hold: CNY51.49 sits inside the CNY48-64 acceptable-hold band on 15.3x trailing earnings and a mid-4% yield, but roughly 12% above the CNY46 conservative fair value, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy range is CNY34-36.
38/100
74Buffett
Skanska AB: A Record SEK 297.5bn Backlog Rests on a 4.3% Contractor Margin, and SEK 271.90 Leaves No Conservative Margin of Safety
Skanska is a Swedish contractor building in the Nordics, the United States and Central Europe while committing its own balance sheet to residential and commercial property development. The gap between those two halves is the whole case: Construction turned SEK 165.9bn of rolling revenue into a 4.3% operating margin and a record SEK 297.5bn backlog worth 21 months of production, yet more than SEK 60bn of capital sits in development businesses returning 1.3% against a 10% target, and two rounds of US commercial-property write-downs totalling roughly SEK 1.13bn have already landed. Rating Hold: SEK 271.90 sits inside the SEK 270-340 acceptable-hold band and below the roughly SEK 313 base sum-of-the-parts value, but about 15% above the SEK 237 conservative value, so an existing position is defensible while new money should wait for SEK 180-190.
34/100
20Buffett
Endeavour Mining plc: Gold Did the Work While Ounces Fell 13%, and £47.23 Already Prices In a Risked Assafou
Endeavour Mining is a five-mine West African gold producer operating in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal at about 1.2Moz of annual scale, with a net-cash balance sheet and one large undeveloped Ivorian project, Assafou. H1 2026 revenue of US$2.569bn, adjusted EBITDA of US$1.611bn and US$761m of free cash flow look excellent, but production fell 13% to 564koz while reported AISC rose 46% to US$1,871/oz: the realised gold price rose 55% to US$4,579/oz and contributed roughly US$1.07bn against about US$458m lost to lower volumes, so bullion rather than ounces or unit costs produced the improvement. Rating Hold: £47.23 sits inside the £41.25-55.80 acceptable-hold band but roughly 35% above the £35.05 conservative value modelled at US$3,000/oz gold, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy range is £26.00-28.00.
27/100
BP p.l.c.: $22.3bn of Headline Net Debt Sits Inside a $55bn Obligation Stack, and £5.397 Leaves No Conservative Margin of Safety
BP is an integrated oil-and-gas major whose upstream, refining, marketing and one of the industry’s largest supply-and-trading books generate the cash now funding a balance-sheet repair and an aggressive portfolio simplification. The gap between appearance and economics is the whole case: Q2 2026 underlying replacement-cost profit of $5.7bn and $10.9bn of operating cash flow cut headline net debt to $22.3bn, but hybrids, leases and residual Gulf settlement liabilities push the economically relevant obligation stack toward roughly $55bn, while buybacks have been suspended since February 2026 and the 30–40% operating-cash-flow distribution rule has been retired. Rating Hold: £5.397 sits inside the £5.20–£6.80 acceptable-hold band but roughly 19% above the £4.55 conservative fair value, so an existing position is defensible while new money should wait for £3.55–£3.65.
31/100
66Buffett
Zangge Mining: A Copper Associate It Does Not Control Now Drives Four-Fifths of Profit, and CNY 76.15 Already Pays for It
Zangge Mining is a Qinghai salt-lake producer of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate whose reported earnings are now dominated by a 30.78% equity-method interest in Julong Copper, an associate it neither consolidates nor operates. In H1 2026 consolidated revenue was only CNY 2.065bn while attributable net profit reached CNY 3.638bn, because Julong alone contributed CNY 2.839bn of investment income, 78.03% of attributable profit, on CNY 15.004bn of associate revenue that never enters Zangge’s top line. Rating Hold: at CNY 76.15 the stock sits inside the CNY 72-82 base sum-of-the-parts region and well above the CNY 58-62 conservative value, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy range is CNY 46-49.
35/100
41Buffett
Aker BP ASA: The 2028 Cash Inflection Is Sanctioned and Tax-Shielded, but NOK 356 Leaves No Conservative Margin of Safety
Aker BP is a Norwegian-shelf pure-play exploration and production company with no refining, fuel retail, trading or renewable earnings to cushion it, operating the Alvheim, Eiga, Skarv, Valhall and Ula hubs alongside a Johan Sverdrup interest that alone supplied 213.5 of its 383.6 thousand boe/d in Q2 2026. The equity case rests on investment rather than revenue: on the company-published consensus, investment cash flow falls from USD 7.323bn in 2026 to USD 2.564bn in 2028, lifting owner free cash flow after cash interest from USD 1.365bn to USD 3.173bn even as operating cash flow declines, and Norway’s 78% marginal petroleum tax means the headline USD 12.5-13.0bn Yggdrasil and USD 7.3-7.6bn Valhall PWP-Fenris estimates cost shareholders far less than they appear to. Rating Hold: NOK 356 sits below the NOK 385-425 base fair value but above the NOK 300-325 conservative value, the 6.94% indicated dividend is not covered by 2026 owner cash flow, and the ideal buy range is NOK 240-260.
31/100
83Buffett
Herbalife Ltd.: Real Volume Growth, Concentrated in India, on a Leveraged Balance Sheet
Herbalife Ltd. sells nutrition and weight-management products through an independent multi-level distributor network across more than 90 markets, and weight management was 54.5% of 2025 net sales. Q2 2026 was a fourth consecutive growth quarter at $1.327 billion of sales, up 5.4% and driven by real volume rather than price or currency, but India alone supplied 20% of worldwide quarterly revenue while China fell 29.0% in constant currency and worldwide sales per qualified sales leader are no higher than in 2022. Rating Watch: at roughly 4.3 times guided EV/EBITDA the equity is a leveraged residual claim on $680 million of EBITDA behind $1.669 billion of net debt, and $12.17 sits above the $9-11 conservative value, so the margin-of-safety verdict is none until the shares approach the $7-9 ideal buy range.
37/100
74Buffett
JD Sports Fashion plc: Cheap Cash Flow, Falling Like-for-Like Sales, and the Cost of Control
JD Sports Fashion is a global multi-brand sports-fashion retailer that resells branded footwear and apparel through 4,811 stores in 36 countries, and FY26 showed how much of its growth now comes from buying rather than selling: reported revenue rose 10.5% to GBP 12.662bn while like-for-like sales fell 2.1% and adjusted pre-tax profit fell 7.7% to GBP 852m. Trading has worsened since, with Q2 FY27 group like-for-like down 3.1% and North America, the largest market, down 6.8%, prompting a cut to FY27 profit guidance even as free-cash-flow guidance held at GBP 460m to 520m. Rating Watch: at GBP 0.8398 the shares trade on about 7.2 times adjusted earnings with an 11.5% free-cash-flow yield, but sit roughly 12% above the GBP 0.75 conservative value, so the margin-of-safety verdict is none until they approach the GBP 0.55 to 0.60 ideal buy range.
38/100
53Buffett
Tesco PLC: A Decade-High Market Share, Bought With Margin, and a 53-Week Year That Flatters Statutory Profit
Tesco is the UK's largest grocer, combining national food retail, Clubcard-led customer data, Booker wholesale and a smaller Central European arm, and in FY2025/26 it held 28.5% of the UK grocery market, its highest share in more than a decade. That share was bought rather than given: on the 52-week adjusted basis, sales excluding fuel rose 4.3% at constant rates to GBP 66.588bn while adjusted operating profit rose just 0.6% to GBP 3.152bn, and the far healthier statutory operating-profit growth of 10.1% comes from a 53-week reporting year plus a GBP 233m reduction in impairment charges rather than from any operating improvement. Rating Hold: the cash generation, the share gains and the GBP 750m buyback are all real, but at GBP 4.715 a mid-teens earnings multiple already discounts most of the post-2020 repair, and the ideal buy range is GBP 3.20 to 3.40.
41/100
70Buffett
Valmet Oyj: Two Businesses, One Share Price, and a Separation Thesis Already Partly Priced
Valmet is a Finnish process-technology group that sells pulp, board, paper and tissue production lines alongside automation, valves and mill services, and its two segments earn very differently: Process Performance Solutions turned EUR 1.481 billion of 2025 sales into a 19.6% comparable EBITA margin while Biomaterial Solutions and Services turned EUR 3.716 billion into 10.3%. That gap frames the formal review the board opened on 24 July 2026 into separating the two into independently listed companies, with an update promised no later than the full-year results on 4 February 2027; the shares jumped 22% that day, while first-half BSS capital-equipment book-to-bill fell to about 0.72x, leaving 2027 revenue dependent on orders not yet booked. Rating Hold: the base sum-of-the-parts of EUR 33.4 a share sits above the EUR 28.56 price, but the price is already about 9% above the EUR 26.3 no-split value, so the margin-of-safety verdict is none until the shares approach the EUR 19 to 21 ideal buy range.