Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Kazatomprom is Kazakhstan's national atomic company and the world's largest uranium producer, supplying about 22% of global primary output while sitting at the low end of the cost curve through its ISL mining model. The core thesis is a rare combination of scale, cost leadership, and high dividends, offset by sulfuric acid inflation, state-control discounts, and China-Russia-linked geopolitical risk. Rating Watch: a durable uranium leader, but the current price offers a roughly balanced risk-reward rather than a clear margin of safety.

NuScale Power is the world's first small modular reactor (SMR) pure-play to win a U.S. NRC-approved design certification, spun out of Oregon State University's IRIS project in 2007 and listed via SPAC in 2022; each SMR module is rated at 77 MWe and a typical multi-module plant runs 924 MWe. But the early-2024 cancellation of its flagship CFPP/UAMPS project gutted the commercial outlook, with TTM revenue of just $18.7M, Q1 revenue down 95.8% year over year, an operating margin of -101%, and a commercial deployment window no earlier than the 2030s. At the current $10.50 share price (down 70% over the past year), the implied 195x P/S still leaves valuation badly overextended. Rating Avoid: a compelling story is not a good investment, and the gap between narrative and fundamentals has reached an unsustainable level.